Snow conditions 21.5.2021

The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger in the high mountains above about 1800 m a.s.l. is MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. The danger increases during the day on sun-exposed slopes, where the snowpack destabilizes and softens due to solar radiation. Especially there and at places with wind-packed snow, wet snow slabs can be triggered by a load on the snowpack. In shaded high mountain locations, snow can still be dry and powdery or crusted today; even there on sufficiently steep slopes, a slab avalanche can be triggered. In the mid-mountains, the snow is mostly stable.

Snow conditions
Currently, the snowpack is still soft only high in the high mountains, but mostly the recently fallen snow is crusted and poorly metamorphosed. There are many wind slabs. Lower down, the old snow is recrystallized and stable; tomorrow morning, due to windy and cloudier weather, it will not refreeze.

Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly sunny. A light to moderate southwesterly wind will blow. The freezing level will rise above 2500 m a.s.l. during the day. Tomorrow it will be mostly cloudy and locally foggy. Occasional precipitation, especially in the Julian Alps and the western and central Karawanks. The snow line will be around 2200 m a.s.l. A moderate to strong southwesterly wind will blow. Sunday will be similar, with precipitation occasionally also in the eastern part of our mountains. The wind will ease in the afternoon. Monday will be cloudy. Initially dry, then precipitation will cover all of Slovenia from the west. The snow line will be around 2400 m a.s.l.

Trend in snow conditions
In the mid-mountains, the snowpack will continue to settle; due to high moisture and wind, the snow will not refreeze. In the high mountains, the surface layer of snow will continue to metamorphose and settle; new snow will also accumulate in the high mountains, but it will mostly be wet and bond to the base. Therefore, we do not expect the snowfall to increase avalanche danger. Lower down, the snowpack is mostly settled and metamorphosed and, despite being water-saturated, fairly stable.

Next bulletin: Monday, 24. 5. 2021

Source: ARSO