Snow conditions 21. 3. 2024

General danger level - Thursday, 21 March 2024
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly MODERATE, level 2 (applies to altitudes and locations with at least 30 cm snow cover). The snowpack is mostly stable. Stability deteriorates during the day in sunny weather on all pronounced sun-facing slopes, where a wet snow avalanche may be triggered. In the high mountains, snow is particularly hard and icy in wind-exposed spots, with risk of slipping there. In high mountain gullies, snow is wind-loaded onto surface hoar in places, with risk of triggering a slab avalanche with additional stress.

Snow conditions
Influenced by warm weather (yesterday's zero isotherm was at around 2500 m), the snowpack has started transforming faster even in the high mountains, while in the mid-mountains snow is mainly melting on sun-facing aspects. Sun-facing slopes are bare up to 1800 m elevation in many places, while in shaded gullies the snowpack starts at around 1300 m. Snow conditions in the mountains are quite spring-like. These days, snow softens during the day and refreezes overnight even in the high mountains. In the high mountains, there are still individual slabs and wind slabs.

Forecast weather development
Today, Thursday, initially partly clear. Midday and afternoon becoming cloudy, with local showers. Weak to moderate northwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m midday around 8 °C, at 2500 m around 2 °C. Friday initially partly clear. During the day, increased cloudiness mainly on Pohorje and along the Karawanks. Especially in the Julian Alps, cumulus cloudiness will form in the afternoon, summits may be in clouds. Weak to moderate wind from northerly directions. Temperature at 1500 m during the day around 6 °C, at 2500 m around -1 °C. Saturday initially mostly sunny, cloudiness increasing from the north towards evening. Southwesterly wind. Precipitation starting in the evening. Overnight to Sunday, snowfall will intensify, snow line dropping rapidly overnight to around 700 m. Strong wind from northerly directions.

Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack continues to settle, transform and stabilise. On Friday and Saturday, due to sunny weather and more pronounced warming, the possibility of wet snow avalanches will increase even in the high mountains on sun-facing slopes. Avalanche danger is likely to increase on Sunday due to new snow falling from Saturday to Sunday. According to current forecasts, up to 30 cm of new snow could fall in the high and mid-mountains of our mountains. Wind will create new snow drifts, cooling will occur.

Next issue: Friday, 22 March 2024

Source: ARSO