Snow conditions 22.1.2021

The danger is 4 on the European five-level scale - HIGH.

Main problem: wind-drifted snow, weak layers, new snow, wet snow



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is currently HIGH, 4, in the Southern and Western Julian Alps above about 1600 m altitude, elsewhere mostly CONSIDERABLE, 3. Snow and avalanche conditions are changing rapidly. Particularly in the western part of our mountains, very large amounts of new snow have fallen on a fairly hard and crusted snow base. In the high mountains, spontaneous medium to large dry snow avalanches are expected. Above the forest line there is also a lot of newly wind-drifted snow. Conditions are very demanding. Due to thawing with rain below about 1600 m, wet snow avalanches will also occur, and on steeper grassy slopes even slab avalanches. Snow avalanches will form on steeper slopes even in the foothills and at lower altitudes below 1000 m, where there is enough old snow.



Snow conditions

Yesterday and today there was abundant snowfall in the mountains, below about 1600 m altitude snow turned to rain due to thawing. The most snow fell in the high terrain of the Southern and Western Julian Alps, from 50 to 80 cm, locally possibly more. Elsewhere in the high mountains 30 to 60 cm of snow fell, lower down the amount of new snow decreases, below about 1400 m rain prevailed. During snowfall, especially above the forest line, a moderate to strong southwesterly wind blew, transporting new snow and building new drifts, wind slabs and cornices on the northern and eastern sides of ridges and saddles. The snowpack in the high mountains is loose and sinks deeply, wind-exposed spots are scoured to the hard base. In the mid-mountains, the effects of thawing are evident, snow is wet, below 1300 m very wet, and also sinks and creeps.



Forecast weather development

Today cloudy and foggy with precipitation, more abundant in the area of the Julian Alps and Snežnik. Snow line between 1100 and 1400 m. Expected another 30 to 60 cm of snow in the high mountains. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -4 °C. On Saturday cloudy and foggy with snow. Snow line will drop to the alpine valleys. In the afternoon precipitation will weaken somewhat. Again 40 to 80 cm of snow will fall, again more in the western part of our mountains. Moderate to strong southerly wind, weakening in the afternoon. It will cool down, midday at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -7 °C. In the night to Sunday temporary clearing. Sunday morning clouding again, during the day light snow will start again from the south. This time less precipitation in the northwest. In the afternoon moderate northerly wind. Slightly colder, at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -9 °C. Monday too mostly cloudy, occasional light snow. Much colder, at 1500 m around -7, at 2500 m around -12 °C.



Trend of snow conditions

Especially in the Julian Alps and the western and central Karawanks, due to the large amount of new snow, and lower down due to rain, the avalanche danger will INCREASE and remain HIGH, 4, above about 1500 m. Strong southerly wind will also on Saturday continue building numerous cornices and drifts. On Monday avalanche conditions will gradually stabilize due to cooling.



Next issue: Monday, 25.1.2021



Source: ARSO