Snow conditions 22.12.2023

General danger level - Friday, 22 December 2023
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: drifted snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above sea level around 2000 m MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. Especially dangerous are steep slopes with gullies and ravines, where there is more drifted snow. On wind-exposed locations there is a risk of slab release.

Snow conditions
Overnight and in the morning there were showers, it snowed above around 1200 m, about 5 cm of snow fell. Yesterday in the high mountains a strong northwesterly wind blew, gusting up to 140 km/h (Kredarica). The wind transported old snow on exposed spots and built snow deposits on northern and eastern aspects. Due to the strong temperature change, snow on sun-exposed slopes thawed during the day and refroze at night in recent days, crust strengthened, it settled somewhat, and thinned in the mid-mountains. In shade, snow remained dry and soft and poorly transformed, there is some crust only due to wind. In the mid-mountains there is little snow, thicker snow cover is mostly only above around 2000 m above sea level. There is more snow in the Julian Alps than elsewhere in our mountains.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday, it will initially be cloudy and partly foggy, with occasional light precipitation, above around 1300 m it will snow. Up to 5 cm of snow may fall. In the afternoon or evening precipitation will stop, it will clear up. A northwesterly wind will blow, strengthening in the afternoon and becoming strong to very strong in the high mountains! Wind gusts may exceed 140 km/h on exposed spots. Temperature at 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -6 °C. Tomorrow, Saturday, partly clear, occasionally increased medium or high cloudiness. Especially on Pohorje and in the eastern Karawanks there may be occasional light precipitation. Initially a strong to very strong northwesterly will still blow, weakening during the day. Warmer, temperature at 1500 m around 4 midday, at 2500 m around -3 °C. On Sunday dry weather is expected, occasionally more high cloudiness. Weak to moderate westerly winds. A bit warmer, temperature at 1500 m around 6, at 2500 m around -1 °C. On Monday cloudiness will spread from the Primorska region inland. Relatively warm weather will continue.

Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will slowly settle and transform due to minor temperature fluctuations, thus stabilizing in the longer term. Avalanche danger will not change much in the next few days. In the high mountains the strong northwesterly on Saturday will still transport snow, but there will be no major new snow accumulations. There will still be a risk of slab release in the high mountains on wind-scoured slopes. The possibility of triggering an avalanche will be on steeper slopes with drifted snow and in ravines, especially on southern aspects where there are snow deposits. From Sunday onwards, when it warms up more significantly again, a wet snow avalanche may be triggered.

Next issue: Sunday, 24 December 2023

Source: ARSO