2.02.2018
General avalanche danger level - Friday, 2 February 2018
Danger is level 4 on the European five-level scale - HIGH.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Snowfall after a prolonged period of frost
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger has increased due to new snow in mountains above about 1000 m a.s.l. and is HIGH, level 4. Lower down it is mostly MODERATE, level 2. Since it snowed mostly on hard and partly icy base, the snow has bonded poorly to it. Strong southwesterly wind has drifted snow into slabs forming mainly on eastern and northern sides of ridges and saddles. Spontaneous release of numerous small and medium-sized and individual large avalanches is expected from steep and also moderately steep slopes. Lower down, individual avalanches may release spontaneously on steep grassy slopes where snow fell on bare ground.
Snow conditions
20 to about 70 cm of snow has fallen in the mountains, possibly more in western Julian Alps. Most new snow is in the Julians, least in eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje, where 20 to 30 cm fell by this morning. New snow is unstable, light and soft. There are many windslabs; on wind-exposed spots new snow is scoured to the hard and icy base in places. Conditions are still changing due to snowfall.
Forecast weather development
Today cloudy with snowfall. The focus of precipitation will shift during the day from northwest part of the country to southwest, partly also to northeast. In hills and mountains weak to moderate northerly wind. By evening expect 20 to 50 cm snow in western half of Slovenia, most in hills of northern Primorska, Notranjska and Kočevsko. Snowfall weakening towards evening and overnight, except south, temporarily ceasing. Tomorrow snowfall from south spreading over most of Slovenia again. In the afternoon precipitation gradually ceasing. During the day another 10 to 30 cm snow possible, most in southwest, less than 10 cm in east. In hills and mountains moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly wind. Overnight to Sunday partly clearing, wind easing. Sunday daytime partly clouding over again especially in mid-mountains. Monday dry and cold.
Trend in snow conditions
Snowpack will thicken further. By Saturday evening up to about 50 cm more snow possible in area between Kočevsko, Snežnik and Julian Alps, locally more, elsewhere 10 to 30 cm. Snow mostly dry above about 800 m, wetter lower. Northerly and northeasterly wind will drift new snow forming new slabs on western and southern sides of ridges and saddles. Snowpack remains unstable and loose. Spontaneous slab avalanches will continue mainly from steeper slopes; due to much winddrifted snow and low temperatures avalanche danger will decrease only slowly next week too. At week's end advise against visiting mountains, especially areas ABOVE TREE LINE and steeper or moderately steep slopes. In mid-mountains and hills especially dangerous STEEP GRASSY SLOPES where individual ground avalanches may release or you may trigger them. This mainly for Škofja Loka hills area, Notranjska, Kočevsko and northern Primorska. Caution also needed lower on steep slopes with snow on grass and at least 20 cm snow depth.
Next bulletin: Monday, 5 February 2018
Source: ARSO