2.02.2022
General danger level - Wednesday, 2. 2. 2022
Danger is 1st degree on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW, 1st degree. Especially in wind-scoured and therefore icy places, there is high GLIDING RISK. The snowpack is mostly stable. Only on steep, shady high-mountain slopes are there rare spots with individual old slabs that can release under heavy load. Overnight, small slabs also formed in high-mountain lee areas, where a small storm slab avalanche can be triggered.
Snow conditions
In the mountains, snow conditions are changing only slowly. Overnight, especially in the high mountains, up to 5 cm of snow fell, which strong north to northwesterly wind is now transporting and building snow deposits. Since the slabs formed on a hard and partly icy base, they will be quite sensitive to loads. There is very little new snow, so the amounts of wind-transported snow will also be small. Only small storm slab avalanches can form. In the mountains, a hard, crusted or strongly wind-transformed snowpack still prevails. Wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured, even to bare ground. On sun-facing slopes, there are also many bare spots due to snowpack melting. The snowpack depth is modest for this time.
Forecast weather development
Today moderately to mostly cloudy, some peaks may be in clouds. Some snow showers will form. More sun in the afternoon. Mostly strong winds from northern directions will blow. Temperature at 1500 m from -2 to 0, at 2500 m around -9 °C. On Thursday mostly cloudy, some peaks in clouds, more frequently in western and southern Julian Alps. Weak to moderate westerly winds will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -5 °C. Also on Friday considerable medium and high cloudiness, during the day low cloudiness will start to increase in the west. Peaks will be mostly in clouds in the afternoon, more clear skies near the border with Austria. Especially in western and southern Julians and in the prealpine area of western Slovenia there will be minor precipitation, snow line at about 1200 m elevation. Mostly moderate westerly winds will blow. At 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -3 °C.
Tendency of snow conditions
Snow conditions will not change significantly in the coming days either. There will be little new snow, and at the same time the strengthened northerly will quickly scour it. Smaller slabs will form in lee areas, but they will not significantly affect avalanche danger. The snowpack will be mostly stable. Gliding risk will still be HIGH. We will publish the next avalanche bulletin on Friday, 4.2.2022.
Next issue: Friday, 4. 2. 2022
Source: ARSO