Snow conditions 22.2.2016

ASSESSMENT OF RISK



Avalanche danger is considerable in most of our mountains.

Above the forest line it is 3rd degree, in lower elevations 1st to 2nd degree, depending on the amount of snow.



At the end of the week it was dry weather. On Saturday it was still cold in the hills with temperatures mostly below zero. By Sunday morning it had warmed up, the freezing level had risen to the highest peaks. A southwest wind had started to blow. There was also sunny weather, which along with higher temperatures on sun-exposed slopes influenced the transformation of the snow cover.

The snow cover consists of a large number of layers and some are still poorly bonded to each other. Above about 1800 m, due to larger quantities of wind-packed and poorly transformed snow, spontaneous release of individual small avalanches is still possible, and on sufficiently steep slopes you can trigger a slab avalanche already with minor loading.





SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOW COVER



The snow cover has settled a little more. Above about 2000 m it is mostly loose, lower down mostly covered with a thin crust that does not support human weight. Due to the thaw, the snow has at least somewhat crusted even in the high mountains, lower where there is little snow, the snow cover has in places already become soaked to the ground. There are many drifts and slabs, on wind-exposed locations the snow is considerably wind-scoured.



In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks there is up to about 260 cm of snow at 2500 m, at 1500 m from 160 to about 220 cm, at 1000 m from 10 to about 40 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains at 1500 m from 40 to 120 cm of snow. The snow cover starts at quite different elevations, but noteworthy amounts of snow are mostly above about 1000 m, in the northwest even lower.





FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT



Today it will be mostly cloudy and foggy. Smaller precipitation is expected mainly in the hilly areas of western Slovenia. The freezing level will be above the highest peaks. A southwest wind will blow. Tomorrow the precipitation will spread over all of Slovenia. The snow line will mostly be above 1500 m above sea level. By mid-morning the precipitation will cease. It will cool down, the snow line will drop to about 500 m above sea level by mid-morning.





TREND OF SNOW CONDITIONS



Today the snow cover will slowly settle and transform, due to elevated temperatures it will initially become somewhat labile in the high mountains. By mid-morning in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks about 10 to 20 cm of snow is forecast to fall, elsewhere in our mountains from 5 to about 10 cm. The new snow will presumably bond better with the base, so we expect it will not additionally increase the avalanche risk. In lower elevations, where it will initially rain, the snow will settle more distinctly and also thin out lower down, the snow cover will soak through to the ground in areas where there is less snow. With cooling it will then freeze and stabilize. In the high mountains new snow may slide from steep slopes. New drifts will form.



In the alpine world the avalanche danger will remain considerable until midday.



In the foothills the snow cover will settle quickly and also melt, on steeper slopes small wet snow avalanches will be possible today and tomorrow.

The next report will be issued on WEDNESDAY, 24.2.2016 in the morning.



Source: ARSO