Snow conditions 22.3.2021

Danger is level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: wind slab

Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger above about 1700 m is mostly MODERATE, level 2, lower down SMALL, level 1. In areas with wind slab you can trigger a dry slab avalanche already with minor loading. Areas with wind slab will INCREASE today. On scoured areas and ridges there is a high risk of falling.



Snow conditions

At the end of the week cold weather prevailed with occasional snow showers. Mostly 5 to 10 cm of new snow fell, which the wind transported on exposed sites. Snow conditions are very variable locally. The snowpack on wind-exposed terrain is hard and partly icy. In sheltered areas there is a layer of dry snow on a hard base, mostly 10 to 30 cm thick, locally more snow. Due to low air temperatures and frequent cloud cover, the new snow is mostly poorly transformed, only in places in the mid-mountains on south aspects a crust has formed due to solar influence. Overnight and this morning a strengthened northerly wind began blowing, already affecting the snowpack. Hard and icy areas will increase, especially on south aspects new wind deposits and slabs will form, and crust will form in places. Snow will remain loose only in some sheltered spots.



Forecast weather development

Today partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, some summits will be in clouds. Strong northerly to northeasterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m from -3 in the west to -6 in the east, at 2500 m around -13 °C. On Tuesday initially partly clear, during the day then variable cloudiness, some summits occasionally in clouds. Initially moderate to strong northerly wind, which will weaken during the day. Temperature at 1500 m from -2 in the west to -4 in the east, at 2500 m around -10 °C. On Wednesday on Pohorje and in the eastern Karavanke moderate to mostly cloudy. Elsewhere initially mostly clear, during the day some variable cloudiness. Weak to moderate northerly wind. Warmer, at 1500 m around 2 at midday, at 2500 m around -5 °C. Thursday and Friday will also continue dry and mostly sunny weather. On Friday a west wind will start blowing. Even warmer. The zero isotherm will rise to about 2000 m.



Tendency of snow conditions

Today and on Tuesday areas with wind slab will increase, due to the strong northerly mainly on south slopes and gullies. In areas with wind slab it will still be dangerous to trigger slab avalanches. The snowpack on pronounced lee slopes will already soften somewhat during the day and refreeze at night. There will still be a high risk of falling. On Wednesday and especially in the second half of the week it will warm up, especially during the day some slabs may become more unstable due to solar influence. Above about 1700 m the avalanche danger will remain MODERATE, level 2.



Next issue: Wednesday, 24. 3. 2021



Source: ARSO