2.03.2015
Avalanche danger is mostly level 2; lower down, mostly below the forest line, level 1.
You can trigger an avalanche with greater loading of the snowpack especially on steeper slopes and at locations with wind-deposited snow.
The risk is still primarily due to poor connection between the old, crusted and partly icy base and the upper layer of newer snow.
SNOW CONDITIONS
In the mountains it has been dry and partly sunny weather in recent days. The wind was moderate and did not form larger new drifts. The snowpack has been slowly transforming, crust forming on sun-exposed slopes.
Snowpack depth is quite uneven. At 2500 m elevation in the Julian Alps there is snow up to about 210 cm, at 1500 m up to about 130 cm, at 1000 m from 40 to about 80 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains there is slightly less snow.
Significant snowpack extends mostly to about 900 m elevation, in valleys and gullies even lower.
CURRENT STATE OF SNOWPACK
The snowpack is soft and penetrates to the old, hard base; crust has formed due to daytime warming and nighttime freezing on sun-facing slopes and partly on flat terrain. There are many drifts and slabs that are still relatively unstable especially in gullies. Ridges and wind-exposed locations are quite scoured and therefore hard and icy in places, even bare.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
On Monday it will be cloudy and foggy with occasional precipitation, snow line at elevation from about 900 to about 1200 m. Not much new snow, up to about 5 cm. Moderate SW to NW wind will blow.
On Tuesday mostly sunny, wind will weaken. On Wednesday initially partly clear, cloudiness increasing during the day. In the afternoon and evening light snow in places, presumably only a few cm of new snow. Weak to moderate southwesterly wind, turning to northeasterly in the afternoon.
TREND IN SNOW CONDITIONS
Avalanche danger will not change in the larger part of our mountains, new snow will not substantially contribute to increased danger.
Northern slopes will remain more dangerous, especially locations with wind-deposited snow.
On southern slopes the snowpack will soften during sunny weather in the daytime and freeze at night, thus stabilizing slowly.
Spontaneous avalanching is generally not expected, except for some small slabs and during the day from steep grassy sun-facing slopes.
Next report will be published on Wednesday, 4.3.2015.
Source: ARSO