2.03.2016
RISK ASSESSMENT
Avalanche danger is mostly 3rd degree today.
New snow has bonded poorly with the mostly crusty base. Due to this weak bond, an avalanche can be triggered even with minor loading of the snowpack. Spontaneous avalanching is minimal.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK
During the night to Tuesday and Tuesday morning, it snowed in the mountains. The snow line was at around 1000 m above sea level. The heaviest precipitation was in the Julian Alps and the western and central Karawanks, where 10 to about 25 cm of snow fell, further east less than 10 cm. On Tuesday daytime, it cleared up, so on sun-exposed slopes the sun softened the snowpack somewhat, which froze overnight.
In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, at 2500 m up to about 310 cm of snow, at 1500 m from 170 to about 240 cm, at 1000 m from 10 to about 40 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains, at 1500 m from 60 to 130 cm of snow. The snowpack starts at quite varying elevations, but significant snow amounts are mostly above about 1000 m, especially in the northwest also lower.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Today partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness with base above the summits. In the west, the amount of cloud layer with low base will gradually increase, so summits will be above clouds, lower down foggy. Light precipitation will start to appear in the Bovec area towards evening. Especially in the high mountains, southwest wind will transport snow into drifts. Freezing level at around 1000 m above sea level.
Overnight, precipitation will intensify in the west and spread over all of Slovenia by tomorrow morning. The snow line will drop rapidly and tomorrow it will snow in many places down to the lowlands. North to northeast wind will pick up. Precipitation will weaken in the afternoon over our mountains area and cease during the night to Friday. By Friday morning, it will clear up considerably.
TENDENCY OF SNOW CONDITIONS
Today the snowpack will settle and metamorphose. The sun will somewhat influence this process, so on sun-exposed slopes below about 2000 m snow will soften during the day and then freeze. A crust will form. In the high mountains, snow will likely remain soft and light, so wind on exposed spots will transport it and form new drifts.
Tomorrow it will snow. Presumably 30 to 40 cm of snow can fall in the northwestern part of our mountains, elsewhere 10 to 30 cm. During snowfall, strengthened southeast to northeast wind will blow, transporting snow into drifts. Avalanche danger will increase again.
Next report will be issued on FRIDAY, 4.3.2016 morning.
Source: ARSO