2.03.2020
The danger is level 4 on the European five-level scale - HIGH.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: cold weather, fresh non-cohesive snow with wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently above about 1700 m SIGNIFICANT, level 3. Particularly dangerous are places with wind-deposited new snow, which due to the strong southwesterly wind are mainly on northern and eastern sides of ridges and saddles. On steeper slopes, smaller loose snow avalanches can be triggered, and with minor additional load on the snowpack, slab avalanches can be triggered especially at places with wind slab, some avalanches may also release spontaneously from steeper slopes. On wind-exposed locations where new snow has been scoured to the old base, there is a risk of gliding.
Snow conditions
On Sunday, above about 1300 m, 20 to about 50 cm of snow fell, in the eastern part of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, eastern Karawanks and Pohorje considerably less, mostly 5 to 20 cm. The snow is light and soft and above about 1400 m dry, lower down wet. There are many cornices, new wind slabs have formed. Wind-exposed ridges are heavily scoured, especially there the snow is hard and icy.
Forecast weather development
Today, cloudiness will increase again from the west in the afternoon, in the Julian Alps precipitation will start to appear, which will intensify in the evening and overnight to Tuesday and slowly spread eastwards. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. Snow line mostly between 1100 and 1500 m, in the Upper Sava Valley area possibly below 1000 m. Strong southerly to southwesterly wind will blow. Tomorrow mostly cloudy and locally foggy. Local precipitation, partly showers will occur. The southwesterly will weaken. Snow line between 900 and 1200 m above sea level. On Wednesday variably cloudy, clearing during the day. On Thursday mostly sunny weather expected.
Tendency of snow conditions
Due to new snowfall this afternoon, overnight and partly tomorrow during the day, avalanche conditions will worsen again. In the western Julian Alps and partly in the Bohinj hills, the danger will increase and towards evening and tomorrow above about 1700 m will be HIGH, level 4, lower down and elsewhere in our mountains SIGNIFICANT, level 3. In the eastern Karawanks and below about 1700 m in the western and central Karawanks, Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Julians MODERATE, level 2. In the west, numerous small to medium and possibly individual large avalanches of new loose snow will release spontaneously from steeper slopes, elsewhere slightly less spontaneous activity. Due to the strong southerly and southwesterly wind, numerous new slabs and wind slabs will form, which especially in the high mountains due to low temperatures will remain quite unstable in the coming days. On Wednesday and Thursday, due to sunny weather, snow will melt during the day on sun-exposed slopes, so the possibility of avalanche release will be higher from late morning onwards, decreasing slightly at night.
Next issue: Thursday, 5.3.2020
Source: ARSO