Snow conditions 23.2.2023

General danger level - Thursday, 23.2.2023
Danger level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: favourable conditions, wind-blown snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / thawing after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently LOW everywhere, level 1. The snowpack is well bonded and generally stable. Particularly on more shaded aspects, weak layers are present in the snowpack; at rare spots under heavy load, a small loose snow avalanche may be triggered. Wet snow avalanches are still possible. Icy surfaces have increased due to daytime melting and nighttime freezing.

Snow conditions
Low cloud has lifted today, covering parts of the high mountains, and it has cooled slightly more. The zero isotherm is currently at about 1500 m a.s.l. Snowpack transformation has slowed in the mid-mountains and high mountains. Below around 1500 m, snow continues to melt. Since Monday, bare surfaces have increased; on sun-exposed mid-mountain slopes, there is no longer consolidated snowpack in places. Snow is mostly well transformed and bears a skier's weight. Due to wind or daytime thaw and nighttime freezing, a crust has formed. On wind-exposed terrain, snow is blown to the hard base. Slabs and wind crusts are still present and well bonded to the base.

Expected weather development
Today, Thursday, mostly cloudy and locally foggy. Weak southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -3 °C. Friday similar weather. Mostly cloudy and foggy, some clear skies in higher parts of the high mountains and in mountain groups to the north and east. Light precipitation will begin to appear especially in the pre-alpine region of western Slovenia, western and southern Julian Alps. Moderate southwesterly wind. Zero isotherm at about 1700 m a.s.l. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -4 °C. Saturday cloudy and foggy with light to moderate precipitation, more expected in the area of western and southern Julian Alps. Snowfall limit at 1400 to 1800 m a.s.l. Overnight to Sunday, precipitation will intensify, snowfall limit dropping to lowlands. Strong easterly winds will blow. Sunday daytime snowfall will weaken, still windy. Noticeably colder. Temperature at 1500 m around -9, at 2500 m around -15 °C.

Trend in snow conditions
Today and tomorrow, conditions will not change much. More developments expected Saturday, with snow above around 1800 m, partly rain, partly snow lower. In the high mountains of the Julian Alps, 10 to 20 cm may fall by Saturday evening, locally up to 30 cm of snow, quantities much smaller elsewhere. Mainly due to rain and wet snow, release danger will increase somewhat and be MODERATE above around 1500 m, level 2. Forecast amount of new snow overnight to Sunday and Sunday daytime still uncertain.

Next issue: Friday, 24.2.2023

Source: ARSO