Snow conditions 23. 02. 2024

General danger level - Friday, 23. 2. 2024
Danger is level 4 on the European five-level scale - HIGH.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger with abundant snowfall and strong southerly wind is rapidly increasing. In the area of the Julian Alps above about 1700 m elevation, the avalanche danger is HIGH, 4th level, lower down and elsewhere CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level. Today we expect spontaneous releases of dry and poorly bonded snow avalanches in the high mountains. Many new slabs have formed that can release spontaneously or under minor load. Lower in the mid-mountains, individual wet snow avalanches may release. Snow and weather conditions will be very demanding.

Snow conditions
Since Thursday, light to moderate snow has been falling in our mountains. Today, Friday morning, the precipitation has intensified. The snow line fluctuated between elevations of 1200 to 1600 m, but has now dropped to around 1100 m. In the mid-mountains, relatively wet snow is falling. In the high mountains, the snow is dry, with very strong southerly winds blowing, gusting over 100 km/h. So far, the most snow, more than half a meter, has fallen in the high elevations of the western and southern Julian Alps. Also in the mid-mountains, the snow cover height is now increasing faster. 10 to 30 cm has fallen, up to 50 cm in the western and southern Julian Alps. New snow has bonded poorly to the old surface, and due to the wind, numerous snow deposits are forming. On wind-exposed terrain, snow is scoured to the old, hard base.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday, it will be cloudy and foggy with abundant precipitation. The snow line will be around 1500 m elevation, but with heavier precipitation, especially in the eastern Julian Alps and western Karawanks, it may snow lower. Late afternoon, the snow line may temporarily rise slightly. Moderate to strong southerly winds will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -4 °C. In the evening, a weakened cold front will pass from the west. The snow line will drop to around 1000 m elevation, but precipitation will weaken simultaneously. During the front passage, graupel may fall. On Saturday, clouds will break up somewhat, especially clearing in the high mountains, but mostly remaining cloudy and foggy in places. Showers will still occur, possibly with thunder. Snow line around 1200 m elevation. Weak to moderate southwesterly winds. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -7 °C. On Sunday, mostly cloudy and foggy weather, showers continuing, snow line around 1100 m. Weak to moderate southwesterly winds. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -8 °C. For Monday, the weather forecast is currently uncertain. Initially probably dry, but probability of precipitation increases in the afternoon. Somewhat warmer.

Trend in snow conditions
By Saturday morning, up to around 80 cm of new snow may fall in the high Julian Alps. In the Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps area, around 50 cm. Snow will fall with strong southerly winds, so more snow deposits will form. Less snow in mid-mountains, but up to 40 cm possible. Since the snow line will fluctuate, amounts will vary significantly by location. Avalanche danger in the Julian Alps above about 1700 m will remain HIGH 4th level, lower and elsewhere CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level. Conditions will remain demanding in the coming days, with danger decreasing only slowly.

Next bulletin: Monday, 26. 2. 2024

Source: ARSO