3.04.2018
General avalanche danger level - Monday, 2 April 2018
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wet snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger above about 1300 m is mostly CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Lower down it is MODERATE, level 2, due to smaller snow amounts and already more transformed snow. The main danger below about 1700 m is softened snow due to positive temperatures and rain, especially on sun-exposed slopes it is saturated to the ground. Higher up, avalanches can mainly involve the snow that fell at the end of the week, of which there is disproportionately more in the Julian Alps than elsewhere. Avalanches can release on a weak layer or on the surface of the old snow cover. Steep slopes and wind slabs are especially dangerous. Lower down we also expect slab avalanches. Below about 1300 m there is less snow, therefore also lower avalanche danger.
Snow conditions
At the end of the week 40 to about 80 cm of snow fell in the Julians. The snow line was between 1400 and 1800 m, occasionally also lower in places. Elsewhere new snow from 10 to about 30 cm, depending mainly on elevation, less towards the east. This snow is soft, has settled somewhat and below 1700 m become wet. Higher up and in shaded locations the snow is drier, even frozen. On wind-exposed locations it is strongly windpacked. There are many drifts and slabs. During the day on sun-exposed slopes the snow becomes wet and thus more unstable.
Forecast weather evolution
This afternoon sunny. Tomorrow it will become somewhat cloudy mainly in the hills of Notranjska, northern Primorska and in the western and southern Julian Alps. Elsewhere mostly sunny. A strengthened southwesterly will blow. Slightly warmer than today, the freezing level will rise above our highest summits. On Wednesday there will be precipitation, except in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje, which will be more frequent and heavier in the area of the Julian Alps. A moderate to strong southwesterly will blow. The snow line will be between 1900 and 2400 m, higher towards the east. On Thursday mostly cloudy, occasional showers and some thunderstorm also in the eastern part of our mountains, further west precipitation more frequent. The snow line will lower somewhat.
Trend of snow conditions
Avalanche conditions will not change much until Wednesday. Due to the thaw in the high mountains the snowpack will settle faster there, it will also become somewhat more unstable, especially during the day on sun-exposed slopes. There with minor snowpack loading you can trigger an avalanche especially at places with wind slab, on sun-exposed slopes the upper layer of snow that fell at the end of the week will also slab. Lower down individual wet snow slab avalanches will release from steep slopes. With rain on Wednesday the snowpack will soak up higher to the snow line.
Next publication: Wednesday, 4 April 2018
Source: ARSO