2.04.2021
The danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow, favourable conditions, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is mostly MODERATE, level 2, above about 1700 m, and LOW, level 1, lower down. Steeper slopes with wind slab are particularly dangerous, where individual wet snow avalanches may still occur today due to the warm weather. The danger will be more pronounced during the day on sun-exposed slopes. In shaded gullies, there are rare areas with less reworked wind slab, where a smaller slab avalanche can be triggered with minor loading. There are icy areas especially in the high mountains, so there is a risk of slipping.
Snow conditions
In recent days, the snowpack has melted faster especially on sun-exposed aspects, this process was slowed in more shaded aspects. Due to pronounced daytime thaw, smaller to medium-sized wet snow avalanches have also occurred. Last night was mostly cloudy, so the snowpack froze only in the high mountains. During the day, the snowpack will become even wetter; due to variable cloudiness, the snow will firm up somewhat even in shaded aspects in places. Differences in the snowpack between sun-exposed and shaded aspects will be smaller than in recent days. In higher parts of the high mountains, the snowpack surface will remain firmer and icy in places. Slabs and wind crusts are still present.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be variably cloudy, with local showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening; in the night to Saturday there will be some transient precipitation, the snow line will drop to about 1100 m a.s.l. In the high mountains, about 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected, lower down just a centimetre or so. A light northwesterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m will be 5 to 8 in the afternoon, at 2500 m around 0 °C. On Saturday it will be mostly clear at first, then partly cloudy with occasional increased cloudiness during the day, some summits will be in clouds at times. In the afternoon there will be some snow showers. A moderate to strong northerly wind will blow. It will cool significantly. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -8 °C. Sunday will also be partly cloudy with variable cloudiness, a snow shower is not entirely ruled out. In the morning a strong northerly wind will still blow, which will gradually weaken during the day. It will be cold, around -2 at 1500 m at midday, -9 °C at 2500 m. On Monday it will be mostly clear at first, clouding over in the afternoon. Some summits will already be enveloped in cloud. A strong southwesterly wind will start blowing. It will be slightly warmer temporarily. Around 1 at 1500 m, around -3 °C at 2500 m. In the night to Tuesday and Tuesday during the day it will most likely be cloudy with snowfall, a strong northerly wind will also blow, and it will cool significantly. The forecast amount of new snow is still uncertain for now.
Trend in snow conditions
Due to the pronounced cooling at the end of the week, the snowpack will firm up and stabilise. Some snow will fall in the night to Saturday, but relatively little, so the avalanche danger will be LOW, level 1. A bit more caution will be needed only on locally smaller areas in the high mountains, where there may be more wind slab. Due to the cold, many slopes will remain icy even during the day, so there will be a high risk of slipping. We expect snow and avalanche conditions to start changing in the night to Tuesday, when a larger amount of snow is expected to fall.
Next issue: Tuesday, 6.4.2021
Source: ARSO