Snow conditions 24.2.2023

General danger level - Friday, 24. 2. 2023
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: favourable conditions, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently LOW everywhere, level 1. The snowpack is well bonded and generally stable. Especially on more shaded aspects, weak layers are present in the snowpack, at rare spots under high load a small slab avalanche can be triggered. A wet snow avalanche is also possible. Due to daytime melting and nighttime freezing, icy surfaces have increased.

Snow conditions
Dry weather continues, there was almost no sun in the mountains yesterday, today only in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje. The 0°C isotherm is at about 1600 m a.s.l. The transformation of the snowpack has slowed in the mid-mountains and high mountains. Below about 1600 m, snow continues to melt. Bare areas have increased further, on sunny slopes in the mid-mountains there is no consolidated snowpack in places. Snow is mostly well transformed and supports the weight of a skier. Due to wind or daytime thaw and nighttime freezing, it is crusty in places. On wind-exposed slopes, snow is wind-packed down to the hard base. Slabs and wind slabs are still present, well bonded to the base.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday, mostly cloudy and foggy, sunny in the east. Especially in the pre-alpine region of western Slovenia in the western and southern Julian Alps, there will be minor precipitation, snow line above about 1500 m a.s.l. Moderate southwest wind blowing. On Saturday cloudy and foggy with light to moderate precipitation, more expected in the morning in the area of western and southern Julian Alps. Snow line at elevations between 1400 and 1800 m a.s.l. On the night to Sunday, precipitation will intensify from the south, snow line dropping to the lowlands. Stronger wind from easterly directions. On Sunday daytime, snowfall will weaken from the north, still windy. Noticeably colder. Temperature at 1500 m around -9, at 2500 m around -15 °C. On Monday mostly cloudy and dry, only light snowfall possible in southern Slovenia. Wind will weaken somewhat.

Trend in snow conditions
Today conditions will not change. More developments expected tomorrow, Saturday. Lower elevations mostly rain, higher snow. Forecast amount of new snow is quite unreliable. In the high mountains of the Julian Alps, 20 to 40 cm may fall by Sunday evening, elsewhere less. More precipitation along the hills towards Snežnik, but there initially higher snow line, and due to lower elevation less precipitation as snow. With the stated amount of new snow, avalanche danger will increase and above about 1500 m a.s.l. on Sunday CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower areas LOW, level 1. If less precipitation than forecast, danger will increase to level 2.

Next bulletin: Monday, 27. 2. 2023

Source: ARSO