Snow conditions 26.10.2020

The danger is 1st degree on the European five-level scale - LOW.

Main problem:



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is currently LOW, 1st degree. The snowpack is mostly stable, only in places with wind-blown snow in the high mountains can a small avalanche still be triggered under greater load or wet snow can slide under human weight.



Snow conditions

Due to the thaw, the snowpack is melting quickly. Up to an elevation of around 2000 m, consolidated snowpack exists only in shady locations. On Saturday, around 5 cm of snow fell only locally in the high mountains during transient cooling. The snow is also wet in the high mountains, as today (Monday) the snow line rose to around 2500 m. The snowpack has settled considerably and is well transformed even in the high mountains. In the high mountains, there are many bare patches and wind-blown snow on wind-exposed areas.



Forecast weather development

On Monday, it will be mostly cloudy and locally foggy in the Julians and hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. There will be occasional light drizzle or rain. Elsewhere, there will be somewhat more sun. A strengthened southwesterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 7, at 2500 m 1 °C. On Tuesday, initially cloudy and foggy with precipitation that will weaken during the day and taper off from the west in the afternoon. The snow line will drop to around 2000 m elevation. The southwesterly wind will gradually weaken. Temperature at 1500 m around 5, at 2500 m -2 °C. On Tuesday night to Wednesday, it will clear everywhere. On Wednesday daytime, mostly sunny with some cirrus clouds. Wind light. It will be somewhat warmer again, at 1500 m around 7, at 2500 m around 1 °C. Until the end of the week, mostly dry weather will continue. On Thursday and Friday, occasional increased mid- and high-level cloudiness. In the high mountains, a strengthened northerly wind will blow temporarily. At the end of the week, sunny and again very warm, the zero isotherm will rise above 3000 m.



Trend in snow conditions

On Monday, the snowpack will continue to melt, only in higher parts of the high mountains will this process slow down. Especially in places with wind-blown snow, a small wet snow avalanche can be triggered under greater load. On Tuesday, the snow line will drop to around 2000 m elevation. Most precipitation will be in the Julian Alps area, where 10 to 30 cm of southern snow can fall above around 2300 m. During snowfall, a moderate to strong southerly wind will also blow, which will primarily build cornices and slabs on the northern sides of ridges and saddles. Avalanche danger will increase to 2nd degree in the high mountains of the Julian Alps (above around 2300 m elevation) and will be MODERATE. The new snowpack will bond relatively well with the base, so avalanche danger will gradually decrease in the following days. In the high mountains, icy surfaces will increase due to transient cooling, primarily in the morning hours and in shady locations there will be greater slipping hazard. Due to the modest snowpack, we will temporarily stop updating the bulletin. We will resume publication with a larger snowfall.



Next issue: Monday, 30.11.2020



Source: ARSO