Snow conditions 26.1.2023

General danger level - Thursday, 26.1.2023
Danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above about 1600 m is CONSIDERABLE (or significant), level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. The avalanche danger has slightly decreased after abundant snowfall. Steeper slopes above the treeline are still dangerous, where there are still extensive areas of wind slab in places, mainly on southern and western aspects. There, even with small loads, you can trigger slab avalanches. In the old snowpack, now buried under a thick blanket of new snow, weak layers are present especially on shady slopes, which can fail at individual spots with additional load. This can happen especially where there is less new snow due to wind influence. Below about 1500 m, steep grassy slopes are mainly dangerous. Snow and avalanche conditions are very demanding especially in the high mountains.

Snow conditions
On Tuesday during the day, it warmed up a bit in the mountains. Snow below about 1200 m refroze and settled, and upon cooling on Wednesday during the day, it mostly refroze again, forming a crust. The snowpack has generally stabilized somewhat after abundant snowfall. In higher areas, the transformation of the snowpack was much slower. At the same time, moderate to strong northeast wind blew mainly in the high mountains, transporting snow and building additional snow deposits in exposed places. The snowpack is still mostly soft and loose, quite wind-packed on more wind-exposed spots. There is a lot of slabs, cornices are forming. Ridges are wind-scoured in places.

Forecast weather development
This afternoon, there will be quite low clouds reaching up to about 1900 m. Higher hills will be in the sun, lower ones in fog. Clear in the western Julian Alps as well. Moderate northeast wind will blow, strengthening somewhat in the evening. Temperature at 1500 m around -6, at 2500 m around -10 °C. On Friday, mostly cloudy, foggy in the mid-mountains. Visibility will be better in the western Julian Alps, where there will be no fog. Light snow possible in the evening. Precipitation amount negligible. Moderate northeast wind. Slightly colder. Temperature at 1500 m around -8, at 2500 m around -11 °C. On Saturday too, initially quite cloudy, breaking up in the afternoon. Moderate northeast wind will persist, strong in exposed places. Air temperature similar to Friday. On Sunday, drier air will start arriving, partial clearing. Wind will begin to weaken.

Trend in snow conditions
In the coming days, due to cold weather, snow and avalanche conditions in the mountains will not change much. Snow will settle only slowly, mainly in the high mountains, new snow deposits will still form on southern and western sides. You can still trigger slab avalanches with minor loads. This applies especially to steep slopes and areas where wind has accumulated snow (gullies, etc.).

Next issue: Friday, 27.1.2023

Source: ARSO