Snow conditions 27.1.2023

General danger level - Friday, 27 January 2023
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is above about 1600 m CONSIDERABLE (or significant), level 3, lower MODERATE, level 2. The avalanche danger has slightly decreased after abundant snowfall at the beginning of the week. Steeper slopes above the treeline still remain dangerous, where there are extensive areas of wind slab, mainly on southern and western aspects. There, you can trigger a slab avalanche even with a small load. In the old snowpack, now buried under a thick blanket of new snow, there are weak layers especially on lee slopes that can fail at individual spots with additional load. This can happen especially where there is less new snow due to wind influence. Below about 1500 m, steep grassy slopes are mainly dangerous. Snow and avalanche conditions in the high mountains are very demanding.

Snow conditions
During cooling on Wednesday daytime, snow in the mid-mountains froze, forming a crust. Above about 900 m, snow is dry and soft, even powdery. On wind-exposed locations, it is scoured, ridges are scoured to hard base. There are many slabs and pinwheels. The snowpack has generally stabilized somewhat after abundant snowfall. In higher areas, snowpack transformation is much slower. At the same time, mainly in the high mountains, a moderate to strong northeasterly wind blew, transporting snow and building snow deposits at exposed spots.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday, it will be moderately to mostly cloudy, in mid-mountains foggy in places. Visibility will be better in the western Julian Alps, where there will be no fog. Snow may fall occasionally in places. Precipitation amount will be negligible. A moderate northeasterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -8, at 2500 m around -11 °C. Saturday will also start with considerable cloudiness, breaking up in the afternoon. More sunshine in the western Julian Alps, more foggy areas in the east. Moderate northeasterly wind will persist, strong at exposed spots. Air temperature similar to Friday. On Sunday, drier air will start arriving, partial clearing. Wind will begin to weaken. Monday will be partly clear and gradually somewhat warmer. A temperature inversion will form. Westerly to northwesterly wind will blow.

Trend in snow conditions
Until Sunday, due to cold weather, snow and avalanche conditions in the mountains will not change much. Snow will settle only slowly, mainly in the high mountains on southern and western sides new snow deposits will still form. You can still trigger a slab avalanche with minor load. This applies especially to steep slopes and areas where wind has accumulated snow (gullies etc.). From Monday onwards, snowpack transformation will accelerate somewhat, especially on sun-exposed slopes.

Next issue: Monday, 30 January 2023

Source: ARSO