Snow conditions 27. 1. 2025

General avalanche danger level - Monday, 27 January 2025
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: Gliding snow
Danger pattern: Rain
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind

Risk assessment
The old snowpack is generally stable, layers on top of the snowpack are mostly well bonded and prevent overloading of deeper weak spots. On some steeper spots with more wind slab, it is possible to trigger a soft slab avalanche with significant additional load. Abundant precipitation will increase the probability of avalanche release everywhere, so above 1800 m it will be HIGH, level 4, below 1800 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3. During precipitation, wet and dry bonded and poorly bonded snow avalanches will release spontaneously. On Wednesday, danger below 2200 m will decrease slightly but remain CONSIDERABLE, below 1800 m MODERATE.

Snow conditions
Yesterday, Sunday, in the Julian Alps and Western Karawanks above 1700 m up to 15 cm of snow fell, in the Kanin Mountains up to 30 cm of new snow. Elsewhere there was less precipitation. New snow fell partly on frozen or even wet ground. It snowed with moderate southwesterly wind, which transported snow into nearby lee areas. Wind slab bonded quickly but remained poorly connected to the hard base, so there small dry bonded snow avalanches can be triggered with minimal load.

Forecast weather development
Ahead of us is a warm deterioration with abundant precipitation. Light precipitation in the Julian Alps will intensify in the afternoon, snow line will rise from current 1600 m to 1800 m by evening. Above 1800 m up to 10 cm snow will fall by evening in the Julians, elsewhere just a few cm of new snow. In the evening precipitation will intensify rapidly and spread eastwards, snow line will gradually rise and on Tuesday morning, when warmest, above 2000 m. Tuesday morning will gradually cool, midday cold front arrives, then snowing to 1800 m. Thunderstorms possible during front passage. Moist southerly to southwesterly wind will continue, so smaller precipitation in Julian Alps evening and night to Wednesday. Then snowing to 1000 m, up to 10 cm snow. Total above 2200 m over 50 cm new dry snow everywhere, Kanin Mountains over 100 cm. Between 1800 and 2200 m some rain or wet snow, so about 30 cm new, Kanin Mountains and Southern Julian Alps over 50 cm. Below 1800 m little new snow, at end of deterioration snow depth likely lower due to melt. Strong southwesterly wind until Wednesday morning, strongest Tuesday midday. Wednesday morning partly clearing, morning wind weak. Afternoon southwesterly strengthening again. Remains warm, zero isotherm to Thursday at 1300 m.

Trend in snow conditions
Abundant precipitation from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon will worsen snowpack stability and increase avalanche release probability. Above 2200 m extensive wind slab areas form, where snow avalanches release spontaneously during snowfall. In showers and thunderstorms graupel possible, worsening new snow layer bonding. Medium-sized avalanche possible with small load. Between 1800-2200 m during precipitation increased spontaneous wet snow avalanche probability, as supporting layers atop old snowpack may weaken, allowing additional load to affect deeper weak spots. After cold front passage, moist surface layers of new snowpack freeze gradually, somewhat reducing avalanche probability. Below 1800 m during precipitation increased spontaneous bonded and poorly bonded wet snow avalanches, especially full-depth on steep grassy slopes. Glide avalanche threat possible there, persisting in coming days.

Next issue: Thursday, 30 January 2025

Source: ARSO