Snow conditions 28.1.2019

Danger level is 3 on the European five-point scale - CONSIDERABLE.

Main problem: new snow, wind slab

Danger pattern: Cold weather, fresh snow poorly bonded with wind

Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is above about 1300 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. On sufficiently steep slopes numerous small and occasional medium-sized dry loose snow avalanches can release spontaneously. In places with wind slabs you can trigger a dry slab avalanche already with minor additional load on the snowpack.



Snow conditions

Until this morning 15 to about 40 cm of snow has fallen in the mountains, most in the high mountains of the western Julian Alps and central Karawanks, least in the mid-mountains and eastern part of our mountains. In the northwest it mostly snowed down to valley bottoms. During snowfall a southwest wind was blowing, creating drifts and building cornices, now the wind is turning to the north. Above about 1500 m temperature was below zero, so snow there is dry, lower it was wet, in the last part of snowfall dry. Therefore the connection between the old snowpack and new snow above about 1500 m is poorer than lower down. Snow is light and soft, wind-exposed locations are quite scoured, ridges partly down to old, hard and partly icy base.



Expected weather development

Today cloudy, snowfall will weaken and stop in many places, no larger amounts of new snow. Snowfall limit will drop to lowlands in many places. In the afternoon cloud cover will thin in high mountains, but it will not clear up. Moderate north wind will blow. Tomorrow moderately to mostly cloudy, cloud base above summits. Below about 1000 m occasionally foggy in places. Weak, in places still moderate northeast wind will blow. On Wednesday initially mostly cloudy and in many mid-mountains and partly high mountains foggy. During the day the top of cloudiness will lower, in the afternoon or towards evening it will cloud over in higher atmospheric layers, high above summits. Weak to moderate south to southwest wind will blow. Temperature will be below zero in the mountains all days.



Trend of snow conditions

New snow will settle and metamorphose slowly, almost no sun until Wednesday. Wind will still transport snow into drifts, today mainly on south and southwest sides of ridges, tomorrow partly also on west sides. On Wednesday wind will be weak. Avalanche danger will decrease slowly. In the coming days we do not expect spontaneous releases anymore, except smaller sloughs from the steepest slopes, but the snowpack will be potentially unstable due to numerous weak layers, therefore considerable caution will be needed especially on steeper slopes and areas with weak layers. On scoured ridges there will also be risk of slips.



Next bulletin: Wednesday, 30.1.2019



Source: ARSO