Snow conditions 28.1.2023

General danger level - Saturday, 28. 1. 2023
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above about 1600 m is CONSIDERABLE (considerable), level 3, lower MODERATE, level 2. Steeper slopes above the forest line are still dangerous, where there are extensive areas of wind slab, mainly on southern and western aspects. There you can trigger a slab avalanche even under small load. In the old snowpack, now hidden under a thick cover of new snow, there are weak layers especially on leeward slopes that can give way at individual spots under additional load. This can happen especially where there is less snow due to wind influence. Below about 1600 m, steep grassy slopes are mainly dangerous. Snow and avalanche conditions in the high mountains are very demanding.

Snow conditions
Today in the mountains it was cold, cloudy and especially in the high mountains also windy. With cooling on Wednesday during the day, snow in the mid-mountains froze, a crust formed. Except for pronounced sunny mid-mountain and lower hill areas, snow is mostly soft and powdery, in places a crust formed due to wind. Especially above the forest line there are many spots with drifted snow, ridges are scoured to hard base. There are many slabs and sloughs. The snowpack has generally stabilized somewhat. Due to the frost, not many avalanches have released yet. Snowpack metamorphism is much slower in higher areas. At the same time, especially in the high mountains, a moderate to strong northeast wind blew, which transported snow and built drifts in exposed spots.

Forecast weather development
Overnight to Sunday it will be cloudy at first, but by morning cloudiness will mostly dissipate. Sunday will be mostly clear, low cloudiness and fog in places in lower hills. In the afternoon high cirrus cloudiness will increase. North wind will weaken and be mostly light, only moderate in exposed high mountain spots. During the day it will warm up significantly, midday temperature at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -7 °C. Monday partly clear, occasionally increased medium and high cloudiness. Temperature reversal will develop. Mostly light westerly to northwesterly wind. Even warmer! Midday temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -3 °C. Tuesday looks mostly sunny with some variable cloudiness, moderate to strong north wind. Cooling.

Trend in snow conditions
On Sunday snow on pronounced sunny mid-mountain slopes will already consolidate somewhat. Some slab avalanches may occur. In general, snow and avalanche conditions will not change much. Snow will only settle slowly. You can still trigger wind slab avalanches with minor load. This applies especially to steep slopes and areas where wind has accumulated snow. On Monday during the day, due to warming especially on sunny slopes, increased avalanche activity is expected! Slabs may release, especially gliding (full-depth) avalanches will occur and in lower hills and mid-mountains also wet snow avalanches. Steep grassy slopes and gullies will be particularly dangerous. Danger will also increase in the pre-alpine areas (northern Primorska, Polhograjsko and Škofjeloško hribovje, Posavsko hribovje and similar). Everywhere where it is steep enough and there is a lot of snow that is now poorly metamorphosed. On Tuesday the snowpack will stabilize somewhat with cooling.

Next issue: Monday, 30. 1. 2023

Source: ARSO