Snow conditions 28.12.2023

General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 28. 12. 2023
Danger is level 1 on the European 5-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Danger pattern: Snowfall after prolonged frost period

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is LOW, level 1. The snowpack is mostly well bonded, stable. Only individual steep slopes and gullies in high mountains, where there is more wind-blown snow, are dangerous. Snowpack surface is frozen mainly in gullies and on wind-exposed sites.

Snow conditions
Warm sunny weather continued. Snow settled, became wet during day and froze at night, surface crust mostly supports weight. Fresh wind-blown snow reworked by thaw and mostly well bonded to old base. In mid-mountains very little snow, ridges locally bare to 2000 m. Today Thursday, with lift of low clouds, cooled locally in mid-mountains, snow froze and will not become wet during day. Above low clouds warmer, snow will become wet.

Expected weather development
Today Thursday and tomorrow similar weather. High mountains mostly clear, mid-mountains in low clouds. Low cloud base fluctuating between 1500 m and 2000 m. Especially in southern foothills strong westerly wind, strongest today. Saturday morning wind temporarily eases, clears midday. Gradual cooling to Saturday, today at 2000 m 10 °C, Saturday around 0 °C. Sunday clouding over, already midday precipitation appears in west, spreads to east by Monday night. Presumably snowing above 1800 m throughout, Monday night also lower. Precipitation amount uncertain, expected at least 20 cm by Monday morning. Monday daytime precipitation likely ceases.

Trend of snow conditions
Snowpack will continue settling slowly, freeze with cooling. On frozen snow areas slip hazard remains. Until Sunday afternoon snowpack remains stable. With new precipitation avalanche danger increases - already Sunday in Western and Southern Julian Alps, Monday night elsewhere. New snow falls on hard frozen base, especially near ridges new wind slabs may form, poorly bonded to base. More abundant snowfall not excluded, could markedly increase avalanche release danger.

Next issue: Monday, 1. 1. 2024

Source: ARSO