Snow conditions 28.2.2020

Danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.

Main problem: wind slab, new snow

Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow due to wind

Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold



Risk assessment

Avalanche danger is currently above about 1700 m MODERATE, level 2. Particularly dangerous are places with wind slab, which due to variable wind are on different slopes. On steeper slopes, smaller avalanches of poorly bonded snow can still be triggered. On wind-exposed locations where new snow is scoured to the old base, there is a risk of slabs sliding.



Snow conditions

Overnight there was light snowfall for a short time, but the amount of new snow is very small. In higher locations there is still 20 to 40 cm of loose snow on a hard base. The snow that fell mid-week has already begun to slowly transform and bond with the hard base. On wind-exposed locations, snow is scoured to the hard base. The southwest wind yesterday afternoon and overnight formed wind slabs, but now the wind has turned to the northwest direction, so new wind slabs are also forming on southern slopes. Due to cold weather, the snowpack will transform only slowly.



Forecast weather development

Today it will be partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness especially over summits and ridges. Some minor snow showers possible. Strong northerly winds blowing, weakening towards evening. At midday, temperature at 1500 m around -4, at 2500 m around -12 °C. Tomorrow in the Bovec area and on the southern foothills of the Julian Alps mostly cloudy and partly foggy. Elsewhere initially partly clear, during the day gradually clouding over from the west, also elsewhere in the Julian Alps, Karawanks and Kamnik Alps summits will be in clouds. In western and southern Julian Alps towards evening light precipitation not excluded. Southwest wind strengthening, moderate to strong in the afternoon. Warmer. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -2 °C. On Sunday cloudy and foggy with precipitation. Snow line around 1600 m, with stronger precipitation it may descend lower. Lower snow line expected in the eastern Julian Alps area, where above 1400 m it will mostly snow. On Monday night precipitation will weaken and strengthen again during Monday daytime. Especially above 1600 m large amounts of new snow expected, even more than half a meter. During precipitation moderate to strong southwest wind.



Tendency of snow conditions

Avalanche danger will remain MODERATE, level 2, tomorrow as well. Dangerous places with wind slab where slab avalanches can be triggered. Tomorrow southwest wind will again transport snow to the northern side of ridges and saddles. On wind-exposed ridges where new snow will be heavily scoured, risk of slabs sliding. On Sunday snow conditions in the mountains will change rapidly due to snowfall. Avalanche danger will INCREASE everywhere, larger amounts of new snow expected in western Julian Alps.



Next issue: Monday, 2. 3. 2020



Source: ARSO