Snow conditions 28.4.2021

The danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is currently LOW, level 1, but it will increase during the day and above about 1700 m it will be MODERATE, level 2. The snowpack is well bonded and generally stable, but during the day, due to warming, the upper layer of the snowpack will become unstable in places. We expect individual small to medium-sized wet snow avalanches especially on steep slopes where the snow is still less well settled. Greater danger will be mainly on more sunny slopes. Especially on ridges and summits, and shady aspects, the snowpack is still frozen, so there is a risk of gliding.

Snow conditions
Cloudy and foggy weather with occasional light snowfall prevailed. Snow conditions have not changed significantly. In the mountains, there is still a thick snowpack from the past winter, onto which 20 to more than 50 cm of snow fell during April. This layer of snowpack has more or less transformed. On Monday and Tuesday, another about 5 cm of snow fell, which has become southern especially in the mid-mountains. Overnight, it cleared above about 2000 m, the snowpack there remained frozen, lower down it is still cloudy and foggy, the snowpack did not freeze. Today, due to warming, we expect faster transformation of the snowpack. Shady high mountain areas will still be hard and frozen, so there will be a risk of gliding.

Forecast weather development
Today below 2000 m it will be mostly cloudy and foggy, with occasional light precipitation. In the high mountains, it will initially be quite clear, but during the day it will cloud over there too, summits will be in clouds. Some small showers will form. The wind will be light, turning to southwest. Temperature at 1500 m will be around 4, at 2500 m around -1 °C midday. On Thursday, mostly cloudy, summits in clouds. Some sun possible on Pohorje and in eastern Karawanks. Especially in the mountains of western Slovenia, local precipitation. Snow line around 2300 m. Strong southwest wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 6, at 2500 m around 0 °C. Similar weather on Friday. Especially in the Julian Alps area, frequent precipitation, possibly some thunderstorms. Snow line between 2200 and 2500 m. Unsettled weather also at the end of the week. More precipitation expected overnight into Sunday and Sunday daytime, when a cold front will pass. Very windy. Snow line will drop below 2000 m again on Sunday afternoon.

Trend in snow conditions
With warmer weather, moist air mass, and rain, the avalanche danger above about 1700 m will remain MODERATE, level 2. The snowpack will mostly not freeze overnight either. Individual spontaneous wet snow avalanches possible. Steep slopes of all aspects where the snowpack is less transformed will be dangerous. We also expect collapse of some cornices. In the mid-mountains, the snowpack will melt rapidly. Around 2400 m, mostly snowing with strong southwest wind, so there will be danger of individual slab avalanches there.

Next issue: Friday, 30.4.2021

Source: ARSO