Snow conditions 28. 2. 2025

General danger level - Friday, 28. 2. 2025
Danger is 3rd degree on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers, new snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: rain

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above about 1700 m is CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, lower down MODERATE, 2nd degree. Fresh snow can release under additional stress in the form of small and medium-sized loose snow avalanches. Wind slabs built by the wind on S-SW slopes are locally poorly bonded to the underlying surface; there small to medium-sized slab avalanches can be triggered already with small additional stress. Everywhere, especially on steep shady aspects, deep medium-sized slab avalanches can be triggered with large stress - this threat is difficult to recognize merely by observing the snowpack surface, as the weak layer is hidden deep beneath the fresh snow.

Snow conditions
In the high mountains above 1700 m there is about 20-30 cm of fresh, only slightly processed snow. In the high mountains of the Western Julian Alps there is 30-40 cm of this snow. On sun-exposed slopes the snow fell on a frozen crust, so only small to medium-sized avalanches can be triggered there mainly on steep slopes with wind-blown snow under additional stress. These are in the lee primarily on the S-SW side of ridges. On shady aspects there is no frozen crust, so additional stress there can transfer deeper into the snowpack - even to old weak faceted layers. There a larger additional stress is needed to trigger, but the released avalanche is deeper and larger. The thin layer of new snow expected to fall on Saturday will not influence the likelihood of avalanche release.

Forecast weather evolution
Today, Friday, it is cloudy and foggy, with light local precipitation occurring, above 800 m as snow. Today another around 5 cm of snow can fall. Temperature at 1500 m around -2 °C, at 2000 m -5 °C. Saturday will also be cloudy and foggy, the easterly wind will strengthen somewhat, orographic precipitation will occur, probably more in the Eastern Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps. Above 1000 m up to 10 cm of snow possible. On the Primorska side of the alpine-Dinaric ridge the clouds will break up. In the night to Sunday it will clear. Sunday will be clear, temperature and wind similar to Saturday. Next week more sunny and gradually distinctly warmer by the end of the week. The air will remain dry, so snowmelt will be limited to sun-exposed slopes and daytime hours.

Trend in snow conditions
In the coming days the snow conditions will not change markedly. Change due to the forecasted distinct warming is expected next week.

Next bulletin: Monday, 3. 3. 2025

Source: ARSO