Snow conditions 28. 3. 2024

General danger level - Thursday, 28. 3. 2024
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Sunny slopes covered with snow

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is primarily in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, above about 2000 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down and elsewhere MODERATE, level 2. Due to new snow and strong wind, the snowpack in the high mountains is unstable. Especially on northern and eastern slopes, new slabs have formed that can release with minimal additional load. Weak layers are present in the snowpack. At wind-exposed locations, the snow is also hard and icy, with a risk of falls there. Below about 2000 m altitude, the snow is increasingly wet, individual wet snow avalanches may release. A more pronounced thaw is expected in the coming days.

Snow conditions
Since Tuesday, frequent precipitation has occurred in the mountains. The snow line has fluctuated markedly. On Tuesday, snow fell to about 1500 m altitude. On Wednesday, the snow line temporarily rose to about 2500 m altitude, in places in the high mountains it rained at negative temperatures! An ice layer formed. Overnight to Thursday, cooling occurred with the cold front, the snow line dropped below 1300 m altitude. In the mid-mountains, about 5 cm of snow fell. In the high mountains since Tuesday 20 to 40 cm, in the area of the western and southern Julian Alps possibly more than 50 cm. The wind strengthened, currently a moderate to strong southwesterly is blowing, transporting snow and building new wind drifts. Wind-exposed locations are hard and icy. The snowpack is wet through to depth, with some dry snow on top. In the mid-mountains there is increasingly more bare ground. The thin snow cover on sun-exposed slopes starts only above about 1600 m or higher, in shaded locations the consolidated snow cover is at about 1300 m altitude.

Forecast weather development
Today cloudy and foggy, precipitation strengthening again from the west. In the afternoon frequent showers, possibly some thunderstorms. In the evening precipitation will ease and cease in many places. The snow line is currently at about 1200 m altitude, but will rise again during the day. In the afternoon snow above about 1800 m. Moderate to strong, on exposed locations possibly very strong southwesterly will blow. In the afternoon temperature at 1500 m about 2, at 2500 m about -3 °C. On Friday mostly cloudy and foggy. Occasionally light rain or drizzle, more frequently in the Julian Alps area. In the high mountains strong to very strong southwesterly, lower down the wind somewhat weaker. Marked warming. Temperature at 1500 m about 6, at 2500 m about 0 °C. On Saturday initially still mostly cloudy and partly foggy, during the day partly clearing. More cloudiness will remain mainly in the western and southern Julian Alps, where smaller local precipitation possible again in the afternoon. Mostly moderate southerly wind. Temperature at 1500 m about 7, at 2500 m about 0 °C. On Sunday, especially in the Julian Alps area, the chance of occasional precipitation increases. Snow line at about 2000 m altitude. The southwesterly will strengthen considerably again.

Trend in snow conditions
Today in the high mountains 10 to 20 cm snow will fall, which the strong southwesterly will transport, new slabs will form, in many places the wind will scour snow to the hard and icy base. In the mid-mountains snow will turn to rain, smaller wet snow avalanches possible. On Saturday and Sunday pronounced thaw expected, the danger of avalanche release will INCREASE. Due to cloudiness and fog the snow will mostly not refreeze. Frequent spontaneous wet snow avalanches. On slopes that have not avalanched this season, individual larger snow avalanches possible. Cornices may also collapse. Danger greatest especially on Saturday midday and afternoon, when the sun shines.

Next issue: Friday, 29. 3. 2024

Source: ARSO