Snow conditions 29.12.2022

General avalanche danger - Thursday, 29 December 2022
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, weak layers, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently mostly LOW, level 1. Greater caution is needed in the high mountains, where there is some wind-blown snow on slopes of different orientations; a slab avalanche can be triggered with greater load. Particularly on northern slopes, weak layers may also be present in the snowpack. The snowpack is frozen and icy in many places, so there is a high risk of slipping.

Snow conditions
Dry weather prevailed in the past days, only occasionally drizzle or light rain in the mid-mountains. From Tuesday to Wednesday it cooled down, temperature was mostly below zero. The snowpack consolidated. The crust mostly does not hold human weight. There is not much snow, in sunny aspects the consolidated snowpack starts only at around 1800 m above sea level in places. There are many drifts and scoured ridges.

Forecast weather development
Today it will be cloudy and foggy mainly in the western and southern Julian Alps, elsewhere quite clear. The top of cloudiness is slowly rising and is currently around 2000 m. Moderate to strong southwest wind is blowing. Warmer air is incoming. Occasional precipitation will be in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska and on the southern and western foothills of the Julian Alps. Precipitation will intensify at night in the west and weaken tomorrow afternoon. The most is expected in the western and southern part of the Julians, where up to about 15 cm of snow may fall. Elsewhere there will be little precipitation. The snow line will be between 1300 and 1600 m. Tomorrow it will be cloudy and foggy, moderate to strong southwest wind will blow. The zero isotherm will rise to sea level around 2000 m. On Saturday it will be quite clear in the mountains, only in the western and southern Julians predominantly cloudy and, especially in the mid-mountains, foggy. Some cloud may form elsewhere along ridges or summits. It will be even warmer. On Sunday and Monday the weather will be similar, only cloudiness will extend a bit further north and east from the west. Light precipitation in places in the west.

Tendency of snow conditions
From tonight until tomorrow evening, mainly in the Julians above around 1500 m up to 15 cm of snow will fall, which the southwest wind will strongly blow away. Since the base is hard, the connection between it and the new snow will be poor. Elsewhere there will be little new snow and it will not affect avalanche conditions much. However, in the coming days due to warming, the snowpack will soften somewhat even in the high mountains. But since it has already settled considerably, warming will not have a major effect on the snowpack. Avalanche danger will due to new snow and warming slightly INCREASE and will presumably be MODERATE, level 2, in the high mountains.

Next publication: Sunday, 1 January 2023

Source: ARSO