Snow conditions 29.2.2016

RISK ASSESSMENT



Avalanche danger is mostly 4th level above about 1800 m elevation, lower down 3rd level.



The new snow has bonded poorly with the mostly crusty base. This weak bond is currently the main cause of avalanching or a high likelihood that you can trigger an avalanche with minor loading of the snowpack. Lower down, rain has wet the snowpack, making it less stable also at these elevations.





SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATE



Since Saturday, it has been snowing in the mountains. The snow line was mostly below about 800 m on Saturday, but rose on Sunday, up to about 1500 m. It snowed on a mostly crusty base or on a relatively thin layer of dry snow on the crust. The most snow fell by this morning in the area of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, up to about 60 cm or even more in the western Julian Alps, below about 1500 m less due to intermittent rain, namely 20 to 50 cm. In the eastern part of our mountains, 10 to about 25 cm of snow fell.



In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, there is up to about 300 cm of snow at 2500 m, 160 to about 230 cm at 1500 m, and 10 to about 40 cm at 1000 m. Elsewhere in our mountains, there is 50 to 120 cm at 1500 m. The snowpack starts at quite varying elevations, but a significant amount of snow is mostly above about 1000 m, lower on the northwest side as well.





FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT



This afternoon variable to mostly cloudy with occasional local showers. Freezing level at about 1600 m.



Showers will start again from the northwest overnight, retreating quickly southeast in the morning. Snow line mostly at about 900 m above sea level. Northerly wind. Clearing from the north in the afternoon. No precipitation until Wednesday morning.





SNOW CONDITIONS TREND



The new snow will settle and transform. Overnight and tomorrow morning, 5 to 15 cm of snow may fall, which will not increase avalanche danger but maintain it. Tomorrow, northerly wind will transport snow and form new wind slabs on south sides of ridges and passes. Especially in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, we expect spontaneous release above about 1800 m of numerous small and occasional medium-sized avalanches of new, poorly bonded snow from steep slopes. Even with minor snowpack loading, you can trigger an avalanche also at wind-loaded spots. Lower down and elsewhere in our mountains, we do not expect spontaneous avalanching mostly, but the snowpack is potentially unstable there too. On Tuesday afternoon, snow will soften a bit on sun-exposed slopes under solar influence. Overnight, snow will refreeze and stabilize somewhat. Avalanche danger will slowly decrease.

Next report will be issued on WEDNESDAY, 2.3.2016 in the morning.



Source: ARSO