Snow conditions 29.3.2016

AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT



Avalanche danger is currently level 1. During the day on sun-exposed slopes mainly below around 2000 m the danger may increase in possible sunny weather.



The snowpack is mostly stable. In sunny weather snow on sun-exposed slopes thaws and softens during the day, so on steep grassy slopes below sea level around 2000 m basal avalanches are possible in the afternoon. On northern slopes in the high mountains snow is still poorly transformed, so surface layers are somewhat poorly bonded to the lower ones. There are many slabs. You can trigger an avalanche with greater additional load on the snowpack only occasionally on steep slopes and in places with windblown snow, greater chance also on sun-exposed slopes midday and afternoon. In the morning hours there is locally a risk of slipping due to hard, partly icy surface.





SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATE



Since Friday it has been mostly dry and changeable weather in the mountains. There was occasionally quite some sun, more especially in the high mountains and in the eastern part of our mountains. Initially the freezing level was at sea level around 1600 m, on Sunday it rose to around 2500 m and yesterday during the day dropped below 2000 m again. Currently it is at sea level around 1800 m. The snowpack thawed during the day and mostly refroze at night. Only in the high mountains above around 2300 m snow in gullies remained mostly dry.



In the Julian Alps at 2500 m there is 290 to about 390 cm of snow, at 1500 m 150 to about 280 cm, at 1000 m up to about 20 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains at 1500 m 50 to about 100 cm of snow, less towards the east. Significant snowpack starts at sea level around 900 m, higher on sun-exposed aspects.



The snowpack is covered with crust or is hard. During the day in sunny weather on sunlit spots it softens, in shaded north-facing spots in high mountains snow is still mostly dry. There are many winddrifts and slabs. On wind-exposed spots snow is quite windpacked. In the morning surface is locally also hard and icy.





FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT



Today it will be variably cloudy, more sun especially in the eastern part of our mountains, although there will be some elsewhere, especially in high mountains. Especially in western Julian Alps light precipitation is possible. Moderate southwesterly will blow. Freezing level at sea level around 1900 m.



Tomorrow there will be more clouds, also in the eastern part of our mountains it may initially be mostly cloudy, especially in western Julian Alps occasional minor precipitation. Higher mountain peaks may be above clouds. Strengthened southwesterly will blow. Freezing level will rise to sea level around 2400 m.



On Thursday weather will be similar, only warmer. Freezing level will rise above our highest peaks.





SNOW CONDITIONS TREND



The snowpack will slowly settle and transform today and tomorrow, faster on sun-exposed spots. On Thursday snow will thaw also higher, in high mountains, also in shaded spots. Snowpack may become waterlogged to the ground in mid-mountains. At night on Thursday snow will refreeze only in high mountains, and even there only in places with clear weather.



Spontaneous avalanching today and tomorrow mostly not expected, only in places with sunnier weather a wet snow basal avalanche may release from steep grassy slopes of mid-mountains. Avalanche can be triggered only by large additional load on snowpack on some steep slopes, especially in places with windblown snow. In the morning snow will mostly be hard and crusted, so slipping hazard.



On Thursday due to warming avalanche danger will slightly increase. Also in shaded spots of high mountains snowpack will be somewhat less stable. Especially in mid-mountains an avalanche may release also in shaded spots.





Next report will be issued on THURSDAY, 31.3.2016 in the afternoon.



Source: ARSO