Snow conditions 29. 3. 2024

General avalanche danger level - Friday, 29 March 2024
Danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: South face covered with snow
Danger pattern: Rain

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mainly in the high mountains of the Julian Alps above about 1800 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down and elsewhere MODERATE, level 2. Due to new snow and strong wind, the snowpack in the high mountains is unstable. Especially on northern and eastern slopes, new slabs have formed that can release with little additional load. Weak layers are present in the snowpack, and in some places wind crust layers are buried within the layers. On wind-exposed spots, the snow is also hard and icy, with risk of gliding there. Below about 2000 m, the snow is increasingly wet, and individual wet snow avalanches can release. More pronounced thaw is expected from Saturday to Monday.

Snow conditions
Since Tuesday, there have been frequent precipitations in the mountains. The snow line has fluctuated markedly. On Tuesday, it snowed down to about 1500 m. On Wednesday, the snow line temporarily rose to about 2500 m, and in some high mountain areas it rained at negative temperatures! An ice crust formed. On Wednesday night with the cold front, it cooled down, and the snow line dropped below 1300 m. On Thursday, the snow line rose again to about 2000 m. In the high mountains, 40 to 60 cm of snow has fallen since Tuesday, and in the area of the western and southern Julian Alps possibly even more. The wind has strengthened; currently a moderate to strong southwesterly wind is blowing, transporting new snow and building new snow deposits. Wind-exposed locations are hard and icy. The snowpack below about 2000 m is wet in depth, covered on top with dry snow. In the mid-mountains, there is increasingly bare ground. Thin snow cover on sun-exposed slopes starts only above about 1600 m or higher, while in shaded locations consolidated snow cover starts at about 1300 m.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday, mostly cloudy and foggy. Occasional light rain or drizzle, more frequently in the Julian Alps area. Snow only high enough in the high mountains. It will warm up in the heights, with strong to very strong southwesterly wind in the high mountains. Temperature at 1500 m around 6 °C, at 2500 m 1 °C. Saturday partly clear with moderate cloudiness, mainly the peaks of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks will be in fog most of the day. Possible some smaller shower. Strong southwesterly wind. Slightly warmer, temperature at 1500 m around 8 °C, at 2500 m 2 °C. Saturday night to Sunday, especially in the Julian Alps area, increased chance of precipitation again, which in the mountains may occur during the day as well. Snow line around 2300 m. Southwesterly wind will strengthen again considerably. On Monday, precipitation in the mountains will intensify, snow line remaining at high elevation. Still strong southwesterly wind. On Tuesday, it will cool significantly in the heights, with showers and thunderstorms possible during the day.

Trend in snow conditions
Today, a few centimeters of new snow possible in the high mountains, elsewhere light rain or drizzle. At the end of the week, pronounced thaw expected, avalanche release danger will INCREASE. Due to cloudiness and fog, snow will mostly not refreeze. Frequent spontaneous wet snow avalanches. On slopes not yet avalanched this season, individual larger avalanches possible. Cornices may collapse. On Monday, more abundant precipitation forecast again, snow only in the highest parts of our mountains, elsewhere rain. Rain will wet and destabilize the snow base, new, even larger wet snow avalanches possible. On Tuesday, with cooling, snow conditions will become more stable.

Next issue: Tuesday, 2 January 2024

Source: ARSO