Snow conditions 2. 4. 2024

General avalanche danger level - Tuesday, 2. 4. 2024
Danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, in the high mountains above about 2400 m, lower down MODERATE, level 2. On higher summits, the snowpack is unstable especially in wind slabs formed during snowfall with south and west winds. There, slab avalanches can be triggered with minimal load. Between approximately 2000 and 2200 m, the snowpack is temporarily more stable due to cooling, but the danger of slab release remains. In sunny weather, the probability of spontaneous wet snow avalanches increases on the most sun-exposed slopes below about 1800 m above sea level.

Snow conditions
With cooling overnight into Tuesday, the snowpack has frozen, but mainly below about 1800 m it remained wet and softened due to rain in previous days, crust may have formed locally, especially in the west where it cleared faster. In the high mountains, mostly above about 2200 to 2400 m, the snow is dry and soft and heavily wind-packed. There are many wind slabs, new slabs have formed. On wind-loaded aspects, the base is hard or frozen, crusty. It is difficult to precisely determine the altitudes where snow conditions change, as the snow line has fluctuated mostly between 2000 and 2400 m in recent days, occasionally raining higher.

Forecast weather development
Today, after a sunny morning, cumulus clouds will form, summits occasionally in clouds. Local showers may form, possibly thunderstorms. Mostly light southwest or west wind will blow. Zero isotherm at about 1900 m above sea level. After a fairly clear night, tomorrow morning from the west it will gradually cloud over. Temperature conditions will be quite similar to today, but with much less sun and thus little influence on snow. Light to moderate southwest wind will blow. Especially in the upper Posočje area, occasional light precipitation with snow line between 1400 and 1700 m above sea level. Precipitation amount will be small. On Thursday and Friday mostly sunny, more clouds in the Julian Alps area and western and central Karawanks. Light to moderate southwest wind will blow. It will gradually warm up again.

Trend in snow conditions
Due to cooling, the snow has frozen and the snowpack is currently somewhat less labile, but strong sun can today especially below 1800 m on sun-exposed slopes trigger wet snow avalanches where there is still enough snow at these altitudes. In the high mountains, above about 2200 m, there is some new snow (most in the Julian Alps, there in the western part), which can slab on steep slopes with minimal load. Especially on northern and eastern aspects there are many wind slabs. There, on steep slopes, you can trigger slab avalanches with small snowpack load. New slabs differ from older ones as they are white, older ones contain a lot of Saharan dust. From Friday onwards, as it warms quickly at altitude, the possibility of wet snow slabbing will increase, especially on sunny days. We expect avalanches to start releasing high in the high mountains then.

Next issue: Thursday, 4. 4. 2024

Source: ARSO