Snow conditions 30.1.2019
30.01.2019
The danger level is 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow due to wind
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: Rain
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is above approximately 1100 m altitude MODERATE, level 2, and lower down LOW, level 1. Widespread spontaneous releases are not expected, only slab avalanches may release from the steepest slopes. However, we may trigger avalanches by loading the snowpack, especially in areas with wind slabs and on sufficiently steep slopes. On wind-scoured ridges there is a risk of gliding.
Snowpack conditions
There are many wind slabs and slabs that are potentially unstable. The snow is generally soft, but on wind-exposed sites it is heavily wind-packed, in places down to the old, hard and icy base.
Forecast weather evolution
Today and tomorrow it will be partly cloudy and mostly dry. The wind will be relatively light. On Friday, precipitation will spread from the west. The snow line will quickly rise to altitudes between 1300 and 1500 m, occasionally even higher. A strong south to southwest wind will blow. On Saturday it will be cloudy and foggy with precipitation, on Sunday the precipitation will ease. The snow line will lower somewhat, but presumably not below 900 m altitude. The heaviest precipitation will be in the Julian Alps, where up to around 20 cm of snow may fall by Friday morning, less elsewhere, and mostly dry in the east.
Tendency in snowpack conditions
Today and tomorrow the avalanche conditions will not change much. The snowpack will only slowly transform and consolidate. The avalanche conditions will change drastically on Friday and Saturday. Below the snow line, rain will wet the snowpack, so wet snow avalanches, possibly full-depth, will start releasing from steeper slopes. Higher up, new snow will gradually increase the avalanche danger, which will rise during Friday. We expect it to be CONSIDERABLE from Friday evening in the Julian Alps and central Karawanks.
Next bulletin: Saturday, 2.2.2019
Source: ARSO