Snow conditions 30.12.2022

General avalanche danger level - Friday, 30 December 2022
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind-drifted snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / thaw after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently above about 1800 m altitude MODERATE, level 2, lower down mostly LOW, level 1. Greater caution is required in the high mountains, especially on northeast and east aspects where there is fresh wind-drifted snow; you may trigger a slab avalanche with a large load. Weak layers in the snowpack may also be present particularly on north slopes, and due to the thaw, one of the layers may fail. On steep grassy slopes, individual ground avalanches of wet snow are possible. The snowpack in the high mountains is refrozen and icy, so there is still a risk of slipping.

Snow conditions
Overnight and today, cloudy and windy weather with occasional precipitation prevails. The snow line is at altitudes from 1500 to 1900 m. There was more precipitation in the southern mountain ranges and less towards the north. In the high mountains, mostly only a few centimetres of snow fell, more fresh snow fell in the area of the western and southern Julian Alps from 5 to 10 cm, locally possibly a bit more. A moderate to strong southwesterly wind was blowing, building new small drifts and wind slabs. Ridges are wind-scoured and icy. The snowpack is crusty in places. In the mid-mountains it is mostly raining, the snow is wet, the snowpack continues to settle and melt, there is relatively little snow.

Forecast weather development
Today, cloudy and foggy weather with light precipitation will continue to prevail. In the afternoon, the snow line will rise a little further. In the high mountains, another about 5 cm of snow will fall. The 0°C isotherm will be at around 2000 m altitude. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -3 °C. Tomorrow it will be mostly clear in the high mountains. During the day it will clear in the mid-mountains too, lower down it will remain cloudy in many places. A light to moderate westerly wind will blow. During the day it will be noticeably warmer. Temperature at 1500 m between 6 and 10, at 2500 m around 3 °C. Sunday and Monday will be similar. More clouds and fog will be south of the ridge from Bohinj-Tolmin mountains to Snežnik, where it may occasionally drizzle or rain lightly. More sunshine in the northern mountain ranges. The westerly wind will strengthen to moderate to strong. It will be very warm, 0°C isotherm around 3500 m altitude. Temperature at 1500 m from 5 to 11, at 2500 m around 5 °C, warmer in the eastern mountain ranges. On Tuesday, a cold front will probably pass, cloudy and foggy weather will prevail, light precipitation possible.

Trend in snow conditions
In the coming days, the snowpack will be under the influence of a pronounced thaw. At night the snowpack will still refreeze in places, but during the day it will soften and become wet. In the mid-mountains the snow will melt, more bare patches will appear. Greater caution will be needed in the high mountains, where weak layers in the snowpack may fail. It will be dangerous especially below rocks and on steep slopes, some wind slabs may also collapse. Avalanche danger above about 1800 m altitude will remain MODERATE, level 2, lower down due to the small amount of snow LOW, level 1.

Next issue: Monday, 2 January 2023

Source: ARSO