Snow conditions 31.1.2022

General danger level - Monday, 31. 1. 2022
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: drifted snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW. Especially on wind-scoured and therefore icy spots, there is high GLIDING RISK. The snowpack is mostly stable. Only on steep, shady high-mountain slopes are there rare spots where individual untransformed or poorly transformed slabs may release under heavy load.

Snow conditions
In the mountains, snow conditions are changing only slightly. At the end of the week, it was quite windy. A strong northwesterly wind blew, transporting snow on exposed locations. Due to warming, snow softened during the day especially on sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations, and froze at night. Even in some shady locations where snow was still softer last week, a crust formed. Snow is mostly hard, crusted or strongly wind-transformed. There is no longer much fresh snow even in lee areas. Wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured, even to bare ground. More pronounced slabs are mainly in shady locations and on eastern aspects; on southern aspects, snow is already more bonded to the ground. On sun-exposed slopes, there are many bare spots also due to melting, and snowpack depth is modest for this time.

Forecast weather development
Today, a small cyclonic area will quickly pass over us. Around midday and in the afternoon, there will be precipitation mainly in central and southern Slovenia, which will subside by evening. In the northern mountain ranges, there will be little or no precipitation, possibly a centimetre of snow. Initially mostly cloudy, clearing from northwest in the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly wind, turning to moderate to strong northerly in the afternoon and evening. Around midday at 1500 m about -2, at 2500 m about -7 °C. On Tuesday partly clear with variable cloudiness, more on the east. Occasional minor snow showers. Moderate to strong northerly wind, temporarily weakening in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -5, at 2500 m around -11 °C. On Wednesday moderately to mostly cloudy, more clearing in the afternoon. Occasional light snowfall possible. Moderate to strong northwesterly wind continuing. At 1500 m around -2, at 2500 m around -10 °C.

Trend in snow conditions
Snow conditions will not change significantly in the coming days either. Very little new snow, which strong northerly will quickly scour. Due to wind and cooling, the snowpack will remain mostly frozen; on Wednesday, the top layer will soften somewhat on pronounced sun-exposed and lower elevations. Gliding risk will remain HIGH. On exposed spots, strong northerly will occasionally transport snow, but amounts will be small due to hard snowpack and will not significantly affect avalanche danger. Snowpack mostly stable, only in shady high-mountain locations some potentially less stable slabs. Next avalanche bulletin on Wednesday, 2.2.2022.

Next issue: Wednesday, 2. 2. 2022

Source: ARSO