3.01.2018
General danger level - Wednesday, 3 January 2018
Danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently above about 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. Steeper slopes with wind-blown snow are particularly dangerous, where even a small load can trigger a slab avalanche.
Snow conditions
On Monday 10 to 40 cm of snow fell in the mountains, the most in the area of the Julian Alps and hills of northern Primorska. The snow line dropped below 600 m above sea level especially in Notranjska and western Gorenjska, elsewhere it was higher. Wind drifted snow into cornices. The snowpack is slowly transforming and settling. The surface is mostly soft and loose, only on wind-exposed sites crusty in places. Ridges and other exposed sites are quite wind-scoured, there are many slabs and cornices.
Forecast weather development
Today in the mountains moderately, occasionally mostly cloudy. Very strong west to southwest wind will blow, in the afternoon turning to northwesterly and gradually weakening. Tomorrow initially partly clear, midday and afternoon more cloudy again, summits may be in clouds. Weak to moderate west to southwest wind. On Friday cloudy and foggy in many places, only in the morning somewhat less cloudy on Pohorje and in eastern Karawanks. In Julian Alps and hills of Notranjska and northern Primorska, in the afternoon possibly also locally in Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps, light precipitation with snow line between 1400 and 1800 m. During the day southwesterly strengthening. Warmer, freezing level at 2200 to 2500 m above sea level.
Trend of snow conditions
The snowpack will transform only slowly today and tomorrow, as there will be little sun and it is too weak for greater impact on the snowpack, and temperature will mostly be below zero or around 0 degrees. The snowpack will stabilise somewhat more. On Friday it will warm up and snow will start settling faster. The amount of precipitation on Friday will be relatively small. It will snow above about 1500 m. Lower down the snow will soften even more due to rain. Avalanche danger is expected to decrease slowly.
Next issue: Friday, 5 January 2018
Source: ARSO