3.01.2022
General danger level - Monday, 3. 1. 2022
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Cold weather, fresh snow poorly bonded by wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW, level 1. The snowpack is mostly stable, only in some steep gullies where there is wind slab, there are still individual slabs that can release under greater load on the snowpack. Especially in shady locations there is also considerable glide risk.
Snow conditions
At the end of the week there was a distinct temperature reversal with dry air in the mountains. In sunny weather the snowpack only softened in the sun during the day and refroze at night, in the shade the snow remained dry and frozen. Lower in the foothills it melted in the sun. The snowpack is mostly crusty and hard and locally icy. It is mostly stable, with some hard slabs.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear. Wind light westerly. Somewhat cooled already, but temperature mostly still slightly above zero. Tomorrow in eastern Karavanks and Pohorje moderately to mostly cloudy, some summits occasionally in clouds. Elsewhere cloudy and foggy, especially in the morning highest peaks may still be above cloud layer. Strong southwest wind blowing. Especially in hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska occasional rain, some minor precipitation possible also in Kamnik Alps and locally in Karavanks and western Julians. Snow line around 1400 m a.s.l., amount small. Wednesday cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will gradually spread over northern Slovenia and midday/afternoon over whole country. Snow line starts descending afternoon and by evening mostly snowing also in lowlands interior Slovenia. Night to Thursday precipitation ceases. Expected most snow in Julian Alps, high mountains possibly more than 50 cm! Karavanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps 20-40 cm new snow, locally Karavanks around 50 cm, further east 20-30 cm. Snowing on hard base, strong northerly wind will heavily drift snow. Thursday partly clearing, temperature in mountains below zero.
Tendency of snow conditions
Today sun will have no major influence on snow because cooler, sky also quite hazy weakening already weak sun. Tomorrow avalanche conditions won't change much, although up to around 10 cm snow possible above around 1400 m a.s.l. in western and southern Julians. Wednesday avalanche conditions will rapidly WORSEN! New snow dry, base hard and thus weak layer under new snow. Strong northerly wind will drift snow into slabs, extensive areas of wind slab forming. Wind-exposed locations may be fully scoured to old icy base. Conditions extremely demanding and dangerous. Avalanche danger will INCREASE. From steeper slopes dry as well as slab avalanches releasing. Glide danger on wind-exposed terrain.
Next issue: Wednesday, 5. 1. 2022
Source: ARSO