Snow conditions 3.12.2021

General avalanche danger level - Friday, 3 December 2021
The danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is above about 1600 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down mostly MODERATE, level 2. Steep slopes are dangerous, where due to larger amounts of new snow spontaneous dry snow avalanches are still possible today. This particularly applies to areas where snow fell on a hard base. Wind slab areas, mostly on eastern and north-eastern slopes, are also dangerous. New snow has covered them, making the danger hard to recognize. Especially where there is less new snow, you can trigger a slab avalanche under minor load.

Snow conditions
On Thursday it snowed more abundantly in the mountains, 20 to 50 cm of snow fell. In the northern mountain groups it mostly snowed down to the alpine valleys, elsewhere the snow line was initially well above 1400 m, only in the afternoon did it begin to descend. In the mid-mountains southern snow fell at first, later increasingly dry snow. During snowfall a light to moderate wind blew initially from the west, in the afternoon from the north-east. The northerly wind strengthened overnight and is already transporting dry snow in the high mountains, building new drifts, cornices and slabs. In sheltered spots the snow is soft, sinks deeply and hinders movement. Conditions are particularly demanding above the tree line.

Forecast weather development
This morning it will still be mostly cloudy, in the afternoon clearing. Initially a strong northerly wind will blow, weakening in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -6, at 2500 m around -12 °C. Tomorrow partly clear with occasional increased mid and high cloudiness. In the afternoon low cloudiness will increase in the pre-alpine region of western Slovenia and in the southern Julian Alps, some summits will be in clouds. Westerly to south-westerly wind will strengthen, transporting dry snow again on exposed spots and building snow deposits. At 1500 m temperature around -5, at 2500 m around -4 °C. Overnight to Sunday snowfall will begin. Sunday cloudy and foggy with frequent snowfall. In southern Slovenia the snow line will initially be above about 1200 m, descending in the afternoon. Precipitation will weaken Sunday evening and cease in the first part of the night to Monday. During snowfall light to moderate north-easterly wind. At 1500 m in the morning around -1, at 2500 m around -7 °C, during the day cooling by about 5 °C. Monday clearing, north-easterly wind continuing. At 1500 m midday around -5, at 2500 m around -11 °C.

Tendency of snow conditions
Snow conditions will not change much at first. Due to cold weather the snow will remain dry. Tomorrow and overnight to Sunday moderate westerly wind will blow in places, transporting snow. The event will be much less pronounced than in recent days. The snowpack will stabilize slightly at first, spontaneous avalanches less likely. Wind slabs under new snow will still be dangerous. Under minor load near ridges you can also trigger fresh slabs, mainly on southern slopes. On Sunday abundant snowfall expected again. Total 20 to 40 cm snow forecast, initially even wetter in mid-mountains. Avalanche danger will INCREASE again. Spontaneous release of dry snow avalanches expected. Slabs now buried under new snow may release. Conditions demanding.

Next issue: Monday, 6 December 2021

Source: ARSO