3.02.2016
AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT
Today, with snowfall, the avalanche danger will increase to level 2. Especially on wind-exposed slopes, where new snow will be drifted, there will be risks of slabs.
The snowpack is currently still stable, but the new snow that will fall today during the day will bond poorly with the hard, partially icy base in the high mountains. Wind will form wind slabs. The most dangerous areas will be steeper slopes and areas with wind-drifted snow, where you could trigger an avalanche when loading the snowpack. Spontaneous avalanching is expected to be minimal.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATE
Yesterday it was mostly dry but cloudy. Temperatures were high, the freezing level was above our highest peaks in the morning. With the warm southwesterly wind, snow melted at lower elevations, but higher up, since the air in the high mountains was relatively dry, the snow remained mostly frozen. Only in the eastern part of our mountains did it settle somewhat on sun-exposed slopes.
There is little old snow, up to about 90 cm in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, elsewhere up to about 30 cm. The snowpack extends in shady areas and plateaus in the western part of our mountains just below 1500 m, in sunny aspects and elsewhere in our mountains it is bare even above 1800 m.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
By this morning it has already cooled somewhat, the freezing level is currently at about 2000 m elevation. The air is humid, so snow below 2000 m has settled somewhat. During the day, precipitation will first appear in the Julian Alps, in the afternoon and evening and overnight into Thursday also elsewhere. The snow line will drop quickly and it will cool. In the afternoon a strong northerly wind will blow. Tomorrow it will be partly clear. Northerly wind will blow. The freezing level will be below 1000 m elevation, but in the afternoon it will gradually warm somewhat.
TRENDS IN SNOW CONDITIONS
By midnight, when precipitation will mostly stop, up to about 20 cm of snow will fall in the mountains, less in the eastern part and below about 800 m elevation. New snow above about 1500 m will bond poorly with the old, hard snowpack, and in many places it will snow on bare ground. The northerly wind will transport snow into wind slabs forming on the southern sides of passes and ridges. New snow will likely be completely drifted off exposed slopes, but many wind slabs will form. Danger will increase to level 2 in areas with old snow, i.e. above about 1500 m elevation, in sunny aspects even higher. Elsewhere danger level 1. Spontaneous avalanching will be minimal, but steeper slopes and areas of wind-drifted snow on southern slopes will be dangerous. There you could trigger an avalanche already with minor loading of the snowpack.
Next report will be issued on FRIDAY, 5.2.2016 in the afternoon.
Source: ARSO