3.02.2020
The danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind-drifted snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above sea level around 1800 m is MODERATE, 2nd level, lower down mostly LOW, 1st level. Due to warming and daytime solar radiation, especially on sun-facing slopes in the high mountains, the likelihood of slab avalanches INCREASES during the day. Under minor loading, small to medium-sized slab avalanches can be triggered.
Snow conditions
In recent days, due to higher temperatures, the snowpack has begun to transform more rapidly. In the mid-mountains, snow has also melted, while higher in the high mountains, the snowpack has primarily softened on sun-exposed aspects during the day and refrozen at night. On more wind-exposed locations in the high mountains, moderate to strong northwesterly winds have drifted snow into wind slabs on the southern sides of ridges and saddles. The snow is mostly crusted and hard; in wind slabs and sheltered areas of the high mountains, there is some soft snow on the old, mostly hard base. Particularly in more shaded areas, slabs from the last storm period are still present. Scoured areas are partially icy.
Forecast weather evolution
Today in the southern Julian Alps and in the pre-Alpine region of southwestern Slovenia up to about 1700 m above sea level, it will be cloudy and foggy, higher up initially mostly clear, becoming moderately cloudy during the day while low cloudiness begins to break up. Elsewhere, after a partly clear morning, cloudiness will increase from the east, with summits in clouds in the afternoon. Weak to moderate westerly to northwesterly winds will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 5, at 2500 m around 0 °C. Tomorrow a cold front will pass quickly. Mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy in places. Late morning transient precipitation from the north, snow line dropping to around 1000 m above sea level. Then variably cloudy with isolated snow showers. In the morning and partly during forenoon, strong southwesterly winds, followed by moderate to strong northerly winds. Cooling will begin midday, and in the afternoon temperature at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -10 °C. On Wednesday variable, in the high mountains and northern ranges also mostly cloudy. Possible snow shower. In the lower hills of the rest of Slovenia mostly sunny. Strong to very strong northerly winds. At 1500 m around -5, at 2500 m around -12 °C.
Trend in snow conditions
Today during the day, the snowpack will soften mainly on sun-exposed aspects, and refreeze at night. Tomorrow morning there will be brief snowfall, with only about 5 cm of new snow. The wind will quickly scour the new snow down to the hard base. Strong to very strong winds will build wind slabs and cornices on the southern sides of ridges and saddles. Spots with wind-drifted snow will be dangerous, where small to medium-sized slab avalanches can be triggered even under light loads. Avalanche danger will thus remain MODERATE, 2nd level. With cooling, the snowpack will refreeze, and icy surfaces will increase.
Next bulletin: Thursday, 6. 2. 2020
Source: ARSO