4.02.2021
The danger is 3rd degree on the European five-point scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, gliding snow
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above sea level around 1700 m is CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, lower down mostly MODERATE, 2nd degree. Steep slopes and places with wind-blown snow on them, as well as gullies where snow has accumulated, are dangerous. There, you can trigger a slab avalanche even with minor loading, individual spontaneous avalanches are also possible, but mostly of smaller extent. Lower down, due to thawing, basal avalanches are possible again, especially on steep grassy slopes.
Snow conditions
Dry weather in recent days. Already yesterday warmer air flowed into the high elevations, today the temperature is above zero almost to the highest summits. The snowpack is very variable. Mostly crusty, the crust formed due to wind, especially on sun-exposed mid-mountain slopes also due to daytime melting and nighttime freezing. Some powder is only in sheltered spots in the high mountains. Wind-exposed locations are heavily wind-packed, hard, and icy. Due to the warming, the snowpack is becoming wetter and more watery, only in the high mountains above sea level around 1800 to 2000 m will this effect be much less.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly cloudy and foggy, occasionally light precipitation in the Julian Alps and in the foothills, the snow line will rise and will be in the afternoon around 1300 m. Little precipitation, further east none. During the day, it will partly clear in the eastern part of our mountains. A strong southwesterly will blow. Freezing level at sea level around 2600 m, occasionally higher. Tomorrow in the eastern part of our mountains mostly clear, in the Julian Alps and partly also in the western and central Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps moderately to mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy in places. No significant precipitation. Moderate, occasionally locally strengthened wind from westerly directions will blow. Freezing level at sea level around 2500 m. On Friday initially cloudy and locally foggy, during the day it will partly clear especially in the east. In the western and southern Julian Alps and in the foothills there will be occasional light precipitation, snow line around 1700 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly will blow. On Saturday no major change yet, in the night to Sunday precipitation will intensify in the west and spread eastward on Sunday. The snow line may initially rise a little more, then descend.
Trend of snow conditions
Snow conditions are changing due to gradual thawing. On steeper and sun-exposed terrain, individual wet snow avalanches will start to occur. Tomorrow and on Friday the thawing effect will intensify, especially in the mid-mountains wet snow avalanches will occur. On steep slopes, gliding avalanches will also release. Especially below 2000 m, the danger of avalanche release will INCREASE. In the high mountains, there will be a great influence of wind, which will transport snow to the eastern slopes. Ridges will be hard or icy in many places, therefore dangerous for slipping.
Next publication: Friday, 5.2.2021
Source: ARSO