3.02.2023
General danger level - Friday, 3. 2. 2023
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, gliding snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above about 1600 m elevation CONSIDERABLE (or substantial), level 3, lower down and in some pre-alpine areas (northern Primorska, Polhograjsko and Škofjeloško hribovje, Posavsko hribovje and similar) MODERATE, level 2. Steeper slopes above the treeline are dangerous, where there are extensive areas of wind slab present on numerous aspects. There, a slab avalanche can be triggered even under a small load. In the old snowpack, now buried under a thick new snow cover, weak layers are present especially on leeward slopes that can fail at individual spots under additional stress. This is most likely where snow is thinner due to wind influence. Below about 1600 m elevation steep grassy slopes are primarily dangerous, where due to warming today we expect mainly wet snow avalanches and full-depth avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Snow and avalanche conditions in the high mountains are very challenging.
Snow conditions
In the mountains it cooled slightly overnight, today warming up somewhat again. The 0°C isotherm is at about 1500 m elevation. Snow refroze overnight but softened during the day on sun-exposed mid-mountain and lower hill slopes. Snow remains poorly transformed in the high mountains and shady mid-mountain locations. Powder snow persists in places in sheltered leeward spots. A crust is present on the snowpack surface in many areas, formed by wind or daytime thaw and nighttime freeze. Above the treeline there are many spots with wind slab, ridges are scoured to firm base. Numerous slabs and cornices.
Forecast weather evolution
Today, Friday, initially moderately to partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness. Moderate to strong northwest wind blowing, strengthening further in the evening. Temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -3 °C. Overnight to Saturday north wind will begin. Saturday partly clearing, variable cloudiness developing during the day. Strong northerly wind, weakening only slightly in the afternoon. Colder. Midday temperature at 1500 m -1 to -6, at 2500 m around -8 °C, colder in eastern ranges. Sunday initially partly clear, clouding over during the day. Especially high mountains still very windy. Strong north wind. Slightly colder. Monday moderately to mostly cloudy. Wind weaker.
Trend in snow conditions
Today still similar to yesterday. From Saturday onward the snowpack will stabilize due to cooling especially in mid-mountains. In high mountains snow and avalanche conditions remain similar. On exposed terrain strong northerly will continue transporting snow. Icy surfaces will increase, thus increasing glide risk.
Next bulletin: Monday, 6. 2. 2023
Source: ARSO