3.03.2021
The danger level is 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow, gliding snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is in the morning and forenoon LOW, level 1, during the day it increases especially on steeper south-facing slopes above about 1500 m and is MODERATE, level 2. On steeper south-facing slopes, gullies and couloirs, the snow will soften during the day, so you can trigger a slab or loose snow avalanche more easily in such places. Larger spontaneous avalanches are unlikely but not completely excluded. Steeper grassy slopes will be more dangerous, where especially around midday and in the afternoon gliding snow avalanches are still possible. In the morning and during the day also in some shady areas and on ridges there are icy surfaces, so there is a risk of slipping.
Snow conditions
The snowpack is mostly well transformed and stable due to the long dry period and pronounced daily temperature variation. Nighttime cooling and extremely dry air at altitude have caused the snowpack to be very hard and icy in places. During the day, the snowpack will soften and become somewhat unstable locally on steeper south-facing aspects, while on more shady aspects and gentler slopes it will remain hard and frozen. Especially in shady high mountain areas, the snowpack is crusty, old slabs are present, and exceptionally there is some old loose snow. Wind-exposed areas are wind-scoured and icy in places. On south-facing slopes, the snow will continue to slowly melt.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly clear, with some high cirrus clouds in the afternoon. Humidity will be extremely low. Weak westerly winds will blow. At 1500 m, midday temperature will be around 6, at 2500 m around 2 °C. On Thursday it will initially be fairly clear with some high cirrus clouds. During the day, clouds will start forming along the ridges of the western and southern foothills of the Julian Alps. Elsewhere, there will be increasingly high cirrus clouds in the afternoon. Winds will initially be weak from the west, strengthening in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m will be around 4 at midday, at 2500 m around -2 °C. On Friday, a front will affect us. It will mostly be cloudy and foggy in places. Local precipitation will occur mainly in the northern half of Slovenia in the forenoon, strengthening in the afternoon and occurring elsewhere as well. Northeasterly winds will blow. The snow line will initially be around 1200 m, dropping to some lowlands in the evening and overnight to Saturday. The amount of precipitation is still uncertain. It is expected to vary greatly locally. Approximately 5 to 10 cm of snow is forecast, which the northeasterly wind will quickly blow into drifts.
Trend in snow conditions
Tomorrow, snow and avalanche conditions will not change much. The snow will remain mostly hard and frozen, softening only on south-facing aspects during the day and becoming more unstable. Exceptionally, small to medium-sized wet snow avalanches will still be possible. The avalanche danger will remain LOW in the morning and forenoon, level 1, and MODERATE level 2 around midday and in the afternoon. The risk of slipping will still be high. On Friday, conditions will start to change due to new snow and wind. For now, it appears that the avalanche danger will not increase significantly due to the smaller amount of new snow. Areas with wind-blown snow will be particularly dangerous.
Next issue: Friday, 5.3.2021
Source: ARSO