3.04.2020
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above about 1700 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. You can trigger an avalanche with greater loading of the snowpack on steeper slopes with wind slab. Due to warming, the danger of wet snow avalanches increases during the day on sun-exposed aspects. On wind-exposed aspects there is danger of gliding on old and icy snow cover. Lower down, due to small snow amounts, danger is low.
Snow conditions
Due to sunny and cold weather the snowpack has gradually transformed, especially on sun-exposed aspects the process was already faster on Tuesday. Snow has hardened especially below 2000 m and also melted in mid-mountain areas, a crust has formed. In the high mountains snow has remained dry especially in more shaded aspects. Snow from the recent storm has been wind-transported to the old hard base layer in many places. Wind slab is mostly on southern and western slopes. Wind- and sun-exposed aspects are hard and partly icy.
Forecast weather development
Today in the morning mostly clear, in the afternoon cloudiness will increase and some summits will occasionally be in clouds. Weak wind from north to southeast direction. Temperature at 1500 m from 1 to 4, at 2500 m around -6 °C. Tomorrow variably cloudy, more sun in the morning. In the afternoon some summits will occasionally be in clouds. Weak to moderate north to northeast wind. Temperature at 1500 m from -1 to 2, at 2500 m around -7 °C, in the afternoon warming a few degrees. On Sunday initially quite sunny, only on Pohorje and in eastern Karawanks there will also be some low cloudiness in the morning and forenoon. In the afternoon partly sunny, some variable fair-weather clouds will form. Weak to moderate east wind, weakening in the afternoon. At 1500 m around midday from 1 to 5, at 2500 m around -2 °C. On Monday and Tuesday sunny and warmer, snowline will rise above 2500 m.
Trend of snow conditions
From Saturday onwards, due to slightly warmer air mass and sunny weather, the snowpack on sun-exposed aspects will harden during the day and freeze at night. Crust will form. Especially in mid-mountain areas the snowpack will also melt. In shade snow will transform only slowly. Especially in the morning and early forenoon there will be danger of slips on wind-scoured spots. Faster transformation of the snowpack is expected at the beginning of next week when it warms up. Differences between sun-exposed and shaded aspects will increase. In the spring situation avalanche danger will be low in the morning and part of the forenoon, later it will increase.
Next issue: Monday, 6. 4. 2020
Source: ARSO