3.05.2019
The danger is 1st degree on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: weak layers, wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is mostly LOW, 1st degree. The snowpack is mostly stable, only in shady high mountain areas is the recently fallen snow less transformed. There, on steep slopes, especially where there is wind slab, under heavy load you can trigger a slab avalanche. Elsewhere the possibilities are small. But in the coming days the conditions will gradually WORSEN.
Snow conditions
In recent days dry and gradually warmer weather has prevailed, with some sunshine in the mountains. The newest snow has therefore transformed and settled quickly. The snowpack is soft only in shady high mountain areas, elsewhere the snow is mostly transformed, spring coarse-grained, in the high mountains there is a layer of newer, partially transformed snow on it.
Forecast weather development
Today variable to mostly cloudy. Local showers will occur, possibly some thunderstorms. Above about 1700 m above sea level it will snow. Weak to moderate southwest wind will blow. Freezing level around 2000 m above sea level. Tomorrow cloudy and foggy with frequent precipitation. Snow line around 1600 m above sea level. Weak to moderate southwest wind will blow. On Saturday night precipitation will intensify, snow line will lower. On Sunday cloudy and foggy. It will snow in the mountains and hills. Strong northeast wind will blow. Freezing level between 1000 and 1200 m above sea level. Precipitation will ease on Monday night. On Monday mostly cloudy and locally still foggy and mostly dry.
Trend in snow conditions
Today avalanche conditions will not change much. Tomorrow it will snow in the high mountains. Above about 1800 m the new snow will mostly be dry, so it will not bond well with the base. The southwest wind will transport snow into wind slabs on northern and eastern slopes. Therefore, in the high mountains the avalanche danger will already increase somewhat, even more on Sunday with additional precipitation and cooling. The strengthened northeast wind will form wind slabs on southern and eastern slopes. The new snow will be light and dry. Avalanche conditions will worsen lower on northern sides, where there is more old snow, because southern slopes are already quite bare high up or have very little snow. By Monday morning about 20 to around 50 cm of snow is expected in the mountains, possibly more on the highest peaks. Spontaneous slabbing possible from sufficiently steep slopes. We recommend greater caution, from Sunday onwards for a few days we advise against visiting the high mountains.
Next issue: Monday, 6 May 2019
Source: ARSO