3.05.2021
The danger level is 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind-blown snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm period / warming after cold
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Danger assessment
The avalanche danger is currently above about 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, and lower down MODERATE, level 2. There was abundant snowfall in the mountains yesterday and overnight. Due to the large amount of new snow, we expect dry slab avalanches to release spontaneously today, and in the midday and afternoon, due to solar influence, also wet snow avalanches. Steeper slopes in the high mountains, where snow fell on a hard snowpack, are particularly dangerous. Especially around ridges and summits, wind slabs have formed that can release with minor loading. Wind-exposed areas are scoured to hard and partly icy base, so the risk of slipping is considerable.
Snow conditions
At the end of the week, there were abundant precipitations especially in the Julian Alps area. Initially, it mostly rained. The snow line only dropped to around 2400 m during the night to Sunday. Yesterday it gradually cooled and rain turned to snow. In the afternoon it snowed heavily, thunderstorms also formed. A moderate northerly wind started blowing. In total, above 1500 m, 20 to more than 60 cm of snow fell. The most in the western and southern Julian Alps, the least in the eastern Kamnik-Savinja Alps and in the eastern Karawanks. Initially relatively wet snow fell on wet base, later increasingly dry snow. The northerly wind around ridges and summits drifted snow and deposited it on south-facing slopes, where new wind slabs formed. Conditions are demanding!
Forecast weather development
This morning, clouds and precipitation will gradually clear. It has already cleared in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks. During the day, some variable cloudiness will form. Summits will occasionally be in clouds. In the morning, light to moderate northerly wind will blow, in the afternoon light wind of variable direction. It will be warmer! Temperature at 1500 m in the afternoon from 1 to 3, at 2500 m around -5 °C. On Tuesday partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, summits occasionally in clouds. More cloudy especially in the Soča Valley area, where an isolated shower may form in the afternoon. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 5, at 2500 m around 0 °C. On Wednesday mostly cloudy and foggy, more clear in the eastern mountain groups. In the Julian Alps area, precipitation will start to appear. Snow line around 2000 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind. At 1500 m midday around 5, at 2500 m around -1 °C. In the evening, precipitation will intensify and spread to all mountains, snow line will drop again to around 1500 m.
Trend in snow conditions
New snow will destabilize in the coming days due to warming and solar radiation, and slide on sufficiently steep slopes. Wet snow avalanches will occur spontaneously. On Tuesday and Wednesday during the day, avalanche danger will thus be above around 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. On Tuesday especially south-facing, on Wednesday also north-facing slopes will be dangerous. Especially in high mountains, areas with wind-blown snow will be dangerous, where a snow avalanche can be triggered by minor loading. Conditions in the mountains will remain dangerous and demanding.
Next issue: Wednesday, 5.5.2021
Source: ARSO