Snow conditions 3 May 2024

General danger level - Friday, 3 May 2024
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold

Risk assessment
The danger of triggering snow avalanches is MODERATE, level 2. Above 2200 m some new snow has fallen, which the wind has blown into wind slabs - there we can trigger slab avalanches. Lower down it rained, there will be an increased probability of wet snow slab releases especially in sunny weather. Due to warming and sunny weather, this threat will be present especially on Sunday also on the highest peaks.

Snow conditions
On Wednesday afternoon light precipitation began, which intensified in the second half of Thursday night. Initially a light southeasterly wind blew, it rained up to the highest peaks. 20-50 litres of rain per square metre fell. On Thursday night a strong southerly wind blew, it cooled slightly, the snow line dropped to 2200 m, briefly it snowed locally below 2000 m. Above 2200 m up to 20 cm of snow fell. During snowfall a moderate southerly wind blew, which carried the new snow largely into leeward positions on the northern side. Above 2200 m the old snowpack refroze, the new snow on it is unstable especially in steep wind slabs. Below 2200 m the snowpack remained moist or wet, additionally soaked by rain. There the probability of spontaneous release of loose snow avalanches and cornice falls increased.

Forecast weather development
Friday will be cloudy and foggy with frequent precipitation, slightly more in the Eastern Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps. Snow above 1800 m. Moderate northerly wind. On Saturday after a cloudy morning it will clear partly, in the afternoon individual showers and thunderstorms may form. Light easterly wind, zero isotherm around 2700 m. On Sunday morning sunny, but already in the forenoon cumulus clouds will form. Showers or thunderstorms may occur. It will be warmer than on Saturday, zero isotherm above 3000 m. On Monday night a southwesterly wind will strengthen, bringing more humid air, so low cloud will cover the Adriatic side of the Alps and Dinaric mountains. There it may drizzle occasionally. Elsewhere initially some sun, during the day clouding everywhere. Temperature similar to Sunday.

Trend in snow conditions
By Saturday morning 10-20 cm snow above 2000 m. Snow will fall with moderate northerly wind, so small wind slabs will form near ridges on the southern side. Some wind slabs formed on the northern side in recent days. Therefore above 2000 m small fresh wind slabs will be present on all slopes - regardless of aspect. There with high load especially on steep slopes we can trigger small slab avalanches. Below the snow line the old snow will become a bit more soaked and less stable especially during sunny periods on Saturday and Sunday. Then wet snow avalanches may release on sun-exposed slopes. On Sunday this threat will also be present in areas with new snow. Again the probability of cornice falls and loose snow avalanches will increase slightly.

Next issue: Monday, 6 May 2024

Source: ARSO