RISK ASSESSMENT
Avalanche danger is mostly level 3, locally especially below the forest line level 2.
The snowpack is still potentially quite unstable and poorly bonded to the base. An avalanche can be triggered in many places already with minor loading of the snowpack. Steeper slopes and places with wind-drifted snow are particularly dangerous.
In the coming days, until the end of the week, the RISK will INCREASE due to new snow!
With new substantial snowfalls, spontaneous release of small and medium-sized avalanches from steeper slopes is expected. New snow will slab over the old, crusty or hard base.
SNOW CONDITIONS
On Monday it was partly cloudy in the mountains, a strong northerly wind was still blowing. On Tuesday it was moderately cloudy, in the afternoon a few cm of dry snow fell in places. New drifts formed mainly on Monday on the eastern and southern sides of ridges and passes.
Temperature was below zero all the time. The snowpack settled slowly and transformed little.
At 2500 m a.s.l. there is up to around 180 cm of snow, at 1500 m up to around 100 cm, at 1000 m from 30 to around 60 cm.
CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK
The snowpack is dry, soft in sheltered spots, crusty also in more wind-exposed spots.
There are many drifts and slabs that are unstable - lying on bare or icy terrain, especially in higher areas also on old crusty snow base.
The snowpack from previous days has bonded poorly with the old snow base.
Ridges are quite wind-packed in many places, sometimes hard or even icy.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Cloudy and foggy weather with occasional snowfall will prevail, intensifying on Thursday afternoon and subsiding only in the night to Saturday. Temperature will remain below zero.
By Saturday, 30 to 50 cm of snow can fall, locally more. Towards the east, especially on Pohorje, there can be up to around 1 m of new snow!
Wind from eastern directions will blow, strongest on Thursday afternoon and Friday, when it can exceed 70 to 80 km/h in the high mountains.
TRENDS IN SNOW CONDITIONS
Snowpack buildup and wind drifts will gradually increase avalanche danger by Saturday - both in the mountains and mid-mountains and even in the hilly areas especially in eastern Slovenia!
Next report will be published on Friday, 6.2.2015.
More at:
http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/weather/bulletin/mountain/avalanche/Source: ARSO