4.02.2019
The danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, in mountains above about 1600 m elevation, and MODERATE, level 2, lower down. Particularly dangerous are areas with wind slab on steeper slopes, where cohesive slab avalanches can still release spontaneously, and where you can trigger an avalanche with a small load on the snowpack. There are many wind slabs on the northern sides of ridges and saddles. During the day, the sun will also slightly crust the snow cover on southern slopes, which may somewhat increase the possibility of spontaneous slab avalanches from steep slopes during the day. Below about 1600 m elevation, the snowpack beneath the new snow is wet, and on steep slopes it can still slab off in places.
Snow conditions
Since Friday, it has been snowing in the mountains, occasionally the snow line rose above 1600 m elevation, but towards the end of the precipitation it dropped below 1000 m. Lower down, snow melted, the snowpack settled considerably, then 10 to about 30 cm of snow fell, depending on elevation. Higher up, it snowed more, the most snow fell in the western and southern Julian Alps, up to about 200 cm in places, elsewhere in our mountains from 40 to about 160 cm, less in the eastern Karawanks, more in the central Julian Alps and in the western and central Karawanks. The snowpack is soft and loose, lower down where it mostly rained, the snow has frozen in places upon cooling. There is a lot of wind slab, mostly on the northern sides of ridges and saddles. Wind-exposed areas are scoured, cornices have also formed.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly clear. The freezing level will be at about 900 m elevation. A light easterly wind will blow. Tomorrow it will be moderately to mostly cloudy at first, with more sun in the afternoon. More clear skies in the western Julian Alps. Warmer air will arrive in the afternoon, and by evening the freezing level will be at about 1700 m. Initially a light northeast wind will blow, strengthening somewhat during the day. On Wednesday it will be mostly clear. A moderate northeast wind will blow. Freezing level at about 2000 m.
Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will slowly settle and transform, in the long term the warming in the coming days will act towards gradual stabilization of the snowpack, but initially due to warmer weather the snowpack will become somewhat unstable. The influence of the sun on sun-exposed slopes will also be noticeable, where in the middle of the day and afternoon the snowpack will be somewhat more unstable than the rest of the day. A crust will start to form there. In the high mountains, the northeast wind in the coming days will transport snow and form wind slabs on the southern and western sides of ridges and saddles. The snowpack will remain potentially unstable, danger will remain CONSIDERABLE, level 3, only lower in the mid-mountains it will be MODERATE, level 2, due to less snow. From steep slopes we still expect spontaneous release of individual loose snow avalanches in the high mountains, even with minor load on the snowpack numerous slabs can release. We recommend EXTREME CAUTION!
Next issue: Thursday, 7.2.2019
Source: ARSO