4.03.2016
AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT
The avalanche danger is mainly above 1500 m in the western and central parts of our mountains at level 4, in the east and lower down at level 3.
Fresh snow is mostly poorly bonded to the base. Spontaneous release of numerous small and also medium-sized avalanches is expected. Even with minor loading of the snowpack, you can trigger an avalanche. Steep slopes and areas with wind-drifted snow are particularly dangerous.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATUS
On Wednesday night and Thursday, it snowed in the mountains, with the snow line occasionally dropping to the lowlands. 20 to nearly 70 cm of snow fell. The heaviest precipitation was in the central part of the Julian Alps and the foothills, and locally in the northern and southern regions. The freezing level was mostly at 900 m above sea level. Initially, a strong southerly wind blew, which quickly turned to the north and northeast.
In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, there is 340 to about 380 cm of snow at 2500 m, 200 to about 270 cm at 1500 m, and 20 to about 60 cm at 1000 m. Elsewhere in our mountains, there is 90 to 160 cm at 1500 m, less towards the east. Significant snow cover starts at around 600 m above sea level. The snow is light and soft and sinks deeply. There are many drifts, especially on the southern sides of ridges and passes. On wind-exposed locations, the snow is quite blown off.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Today, the weather will be fairly sunny. The wind will weaken and turn to the southwest. The freezing level will be at around 1000 m above sea level.
Tomorrow, in the eastern part of our mountains, it will be fairly sunny at least in the morning, clouding over in the afternoon. Elsewhere, it will be cloudy and also foggy. In the morning and forenoon, precipitation will occur in the western Karawanks and western and central Julian Alps, in the afternoon up to the Kamnik-Savinja Alps. The snow line will initially be below around 700 m, rising during the day to around 1000 m above sea level, but lower in the Upper Sava Valley. A strong southwest and south wind will blow. Approximately 10 to about 30 cm of snow is expected to fall in areas with snowfall.
On Saturday night, with the rapid passage of a cold front, precipitation will temporarily cover all of Slovenia and subside already in the second part of the night. The snow line will temporarily drop slightly. Another 5 to 20 cm of snow will fall, the least in the east. On Sunday, it will be variable, predominantly cloudy in the west. Especially around noon and in the afternoon, local precipitation, partly showers, will occur, and in the hilly areas of northwest and west Slovenia, precipitation will be more frequent and start from the morning. The snow line will be between 900 and 1200 m, higher in the east. On Sunday night to Monday, precipitation in the northwest will intensify somewhat. In the area of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, up to about 20 cm of snow will fall.
SNOW CONDITIONS TREND
Today, the snowpack will settle and transform. On sun-exposed slopes and below around 1100 m, the snow will wet during the day and freeze at night, forming a crust. Elsewhere, it will remain dry and soft. The snowpack will stabilize somewhat, and the avalanche danger will decrease slightly by tomorrow.
By Sunday morning, new precipitation in the west will increase the avalanche danger again. Higher up, the new snow will increase the danger, lower down the snow will get wet and may slide off steep grassy slopes. It is expected to rise to level 4 in the western and central parts of the Julian Alps and in the western Karawanks. Elsewhere, due to less precipitation or mostly dry weather, the danger will remain at level 3.
The next report will be issued on MONDAY, 7.3.2016 in the morning.
Source: ARSO